Industry perspective update:
Home furnishing: since most of the offline home furnishing stores are closed during the Spring Festival to February 5, we mainly count the online home furnishing consumption. During the Spring Festival this year, the overall online home sales were relatively stable. Among them, the sales growth of Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) flagship store was ideal, which was + 33.9% compared with the same period last year (from the beginning of the annual goods festival to the fourth day of the year). After the festival, the home furnishing industry will usher in 315, an important sales node in the whole year. We believe that when there is a certain pressure on the overall demand growth of the home furnishing industry in 2022, we need to pay more attention to the changes on the supply side of the industry. Under the trend of integrated sales of customization and software, the demand for the comprehensive ability of enterprises will be higher, the competition threshold will be significantly improved, and the industry pattern is expected to usher in marginal optimization, We are still optimistic about Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) with significantly leading comprehensive ability and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) with gradual results of in-depth reform. In addition, it is suggested to actively pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the export profit elasticity of software home furnishing enterprises in the first half of 22 years.
New type of tobacco: in terms of atomization sector, the national standard for e-cigarettes (Exposure Draft) before the Festival ends the feedback stage and is about to enter the stage of substantive policy implementation. We are still optimistic that after the policy of atomized e-cigarettes in China is clear, the head manufacturer smore will return to the normal track with the growth of e-cigarette consumption in China and the optimization of competition pattern, Its performance returns to the ideal growth trend. According to our grassroots research on many e-cigarette stores back home during the Spring Festival, Yueke is absolutely ahead in most cities in terms of the number of stores and consumer cognition. Although most shopkeepers reported that the sales in the second half of the year were slightly weaker than that in the first half of the year, the relevant policies had no direct impact. It was more due to competition and consumer mentality. On the whole, at present, the operation of the head e-cigarette brand is relatively stable, and most shopkeepers are optimistic about the e-cigarette consumption after the policy is clear after the year. In terms of HNB sector, China's HNB industry as a whole is still expected to develop well in the future, and is still in the policy waiting period.
Papermaking: the paper enterprises issued a letter of moderate price increase. The overhaul and shipping increased the pressure of raw material supply and pushed up the pulp price to provide cost support. The profit per ton is expected to be repaired quarterly. 1) Operating angle: the operating rates of coated paper and double offset paper were + 0.25%%, - 1.18% month on month, the operating load rate of white cardboard industry was + 1.00% compared with last week, and the operating rates of box board corrugated paper were - 6.38% and - 6.50% month on month respectively. 2) Inventory angle: the inventory days of coated paper and double offset paper are - 2.35% and - 3.28% respectively, the inventory of white cardboard is + 0.19%, and the inventory of box board corrugated paper is + 0.21% and - 0.13% respectively; 3) Cost side: Maintenance & shipping intensifies the pressure on the supply side, with strong cost support. The demand is expected to gradually warm up after the year, and the profit per ton of paper enterprises is expected to hit the bottom for repair.
Pets: driven by the consumption of "pleasing oneself", pets perform beautifully during the New Year Festival. According to the big consumption data of 2022 Taobao live broadcast new year's festival, the transaction volume of pet clothing live broadcast room represented by pet supplies / "lion awakening clothes" was + 40% / + 65%, and the transaction volume of pet clothing live broadcast room increased by 65%. According to the 2022 goods festival consumption report released by Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) , the popularity of pet new year goods during the annual goods Festival increased by 19% year-on-year. We believe that the upgrading of pet consumption is logical and continue to be optimistic about the brand side and production side investment opportunities brought by the rise of domestic products under the background of the rapid development of Chinese pets.
Investment advice
Home furnishings: recommend Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (Integrated Business & platform), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (concentration of domestic sales share & export profit elasticity), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (it is improving in many aspects, and there is a large space for valuation and repair).
Pet: it is suggested to pay attention to Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) (the adverse factors of export business gradually dissipate, the production capacity is climbing and reorganizing in 22 years, it is expected that 1q-2q22 will usher in the performance inflection point, the Chinese brand strategy has been sorted out, focus on independent brands, increase the investment in new channels and accelerate growth).
Risk factors
The growth rate and time of China's consumption have slowed down more than expected; Real estate sales have been shrinking sharply for a long time; The rising range and time of chemical raw material prices exceeded expectations; The exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
