Recent key changes (0124-0206): ① the State Council said to carry out infrastructure investment moderately in advance and solidly promote the implementation of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan. ② International oil prices rose across the board. On February 4, the oil distribution contract in April rose 3.60% to US $93.27/barrel. "③ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) issuing shares and paying cash to purchase assets were registered and approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. ④ during the Spring Festival, the price of float glass in some areas increased. ⑤ based on the principle of prudence, some consumer building materials, light industry and home furnishing, construction and decoration companies plan to make large impairment reserves for some real estate enterprises. ⑥ the performance scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises in January 2022 decreased by nearly 40% year-on-year.
Core view: (1): from the end of 21q4 policy to the end of 22q1 market, the real estate chain can be more optimistic. The 5-year LPR has been lowered for the first time since April 2020, and the positive signal is obvious. At present, real estate sales are in the doldrums and new land acquisition projects are sluggish, which is conducive to the restoration of market confidence. Since September last year, the real estate policy has changed from "small launch and stable expectation" to "high-frequency launch and heavy landing". The end of the policy has gradually transitioned to the end of the market. We judge that we are expected to see marginal improvements in front-end sales, construction and other data in the next quarter. In the second half of 2021, the "low temperature" of the real estate market was mainly due to the delay of mortgage loans for home buyers, the tightening of development loans for developers, and the debt default of leading real estate developers. After the digestion of the policy factors from September to December, the demand side and supply side were significantly "warmed up". For example, according to the financial Associated Press, the lending rate of second-hand housing loans in Beijing was significantly accelerated in the first half of January, Some banks have digested the housing loans that could not be released by the end of 2021. We believe that the real estate chain can be more optimistic, and the valuation directly reflects the expectation, which will be accompanied by the increase in the performance expectation of leading companies in 2022. The consumption of building materials and cement directly benefited from the improvement of the front end, and the completion and delivery of glass were accelerated. At present, the second-line leaders can be more optimistic, the performance repair flexibility is greater, and the sustainability of the first-line leaders is stronger. First, the external environment of the real estate chain will be greatly improved, and second, the performance is expected to be repaired. In addition, after the baptism of the bottom, the concentration is indeed improved, and the voice of major downstream real estate developers is correspondingly weakened. Core targets include [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ] [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ], elastic targets [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) ] [ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ] [ Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ] [ Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ].
(2) provision for impairment: at the end of January, several companies issued performance forecasts for 2021, increased the credit loss rate of real estate customers based on the principle of prudence, and made provision for impairment of some customers, including Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co.Ltd(002081) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , D&O Home Collection Co.Ltd(002798) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Zhejiang Youpon Integrated Ceiling Co.Ltd(002718) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) . Credit risks of real estate enterprises occurred frequently in 2021. We believe that since the risk fermentation in the second half of 2020, the market has been expected. This time, the provision is sufficient, the impairment risk is fully released, and consumer building materials and building decoration enterprises are expected to be light in 2022.
(3) continuously prompt the infrastructure chain and recommend cement, pipe network construction, water reducing agent and waterproof in reverse cycle. Infrastructure is expected to hedge the downward pressure of Q1. Pipe network construction focuses on [China Liansu] [ Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ], growth + cycle [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elastic focus [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ], robust + green power [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ].
(4) continue to be optimistic about the TOC retail model and pay attention to the value of high-quality operation and business model. Core recommendation [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profit, concentric circle strategy acceleration, focusing on C + small B [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ].
(5) new materials throughout the year: carbon glass composites of wind power blades, UTG glass, medicinal glass, wind power grouting, photovoltaic glass, etc. The contribution of new business revenue has increased steadily, with smooth periodicity, which is conducive to obtaining carbon emission indicators.
(6) Hong Kong stock valuation restoration: key targets include [China Liansu] [China building materials].
Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
