Key investment points:
Market review: as of January 28, 2022, Shenwan auto sector fell 6.06% in the week, 1.55 percentage points lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 26th among Shenwan 31 industries. The five sub sectors of Shenwan automobile industry all fell, the decline of automobile services was relatively small, and the decline of passenger cars was the largest. The specific performance is as follows: the auto service sector fell 3.31%, the commercial vehicle sector fell 5.01%, the auto parts sector fell 5.24%, the motorcycle and other sectors fell 7.72%, and the passenger vehicle sector fell 7.90%. The top three companies with weekly growth were Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Dynavolt Renewable Energy Technology (Henan) Co.Ltd(002684) , Wuxi Lihu Corporation Linmited(300694) , up 14.47%, 8.12% and 7.31% respectively. The top three companies with weekly decline were C Chaoda, Guizhou Guihang Automotive Components Co.Ltd(600523) and concentric transmission, with declines of 22.39%, 19.92% and 16.77% respectively. In terms of valuation, as of January 28, the pettm of Shenwan automobile sector was 27 times, at the quantile of 74.22% in recent five years and 85.38% in recent ten years; In terms of sub sectors, the pettm of automobile service sector is 18 times, that of auto parts sector is 26 times, that of passenger car sector is 33 times, and that of commercial vehicle sector is 21 times.
The sales volume of key new energy industries in January and February of 2021 increased by 3673 {168} compared with that in February of 2021; Weilai delivered 9652 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%; Xiaopeng delivered 12922 cars, a year-on-year increase of 115%; 12268 ideal vehicles were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of 128.1%; Nezha delivered 11009 vehicles, a sharp increase of 402% year-on-year; 8085 Zero run vehicles were delivered, a sharp increase of 434% year-on-year. 2. The latest “inventory early warning index survey of Chinese auto dealers” via released by China Automobile Association shows that in January 2022, the inventory early warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 58.3%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year and up 2.2 percentage points month on month. The inventory early warning index is above the boom and bust line.
View of Auto Industry Week: the new forces of car making made a good start in January, and the sales volume maintained high growth. Chip supply is gradually improving, the inventory replenishment trend continues, and the automobile production and sales data is expected to continue to improve. The overall automobile market is expected to achieve steady growth in 2022, which will drive the demand of parts and components to continue to repair. The state continues to encourage and support the development of new energy vehicles, and the new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain a high growth momentum in 2022. It is suggested to focus on global competitiveness, actively transform to electric intelligence, and benefit from the elasticity of demand replenishment after improved chip supply: Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (603596), Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) (300258).
Risk tips: the improvement of chip supply is less than expected, the production and sales of cars are less than expected, the iteration of new technology reform, the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices, the intensification of market competition, the safety risk of electric vehicles, etc.
