Baijiu Spring Festival sales Research Summary: the market to accelerate the concentration of famous liquor, brand differentiation. After the Spring Festival, we comprehensively tracked a number of dealers in various regions, and generally felt that the performance of various regions was significantly differentiated during the Spring Festival, and showed a trend of accelerating the concentration of famous wines. Maowu and Luzhou are less affected by the epidemic, and their mobile sales are growing steadily. Among them, Maotai is the stronger, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) perform better in their respective strong regions. Secondary high-end Zhongfen liquor and Jiannanchun liquor have strong performance as old famous liquor. In addition, regional leaders have better performance, and the performance of liquor enterprises will still be supported, which is more likely to achieve a good start. At present, the epidemic situation has little impact on the payment collection of manufacturers, the regional control of the epidemic situation is becoming stricter, and the sales are relatively flat; The dynamic sales in economically developed areas and areas not affected by the epidemic still maintain a good momentum. The Spring Festival sales of Baijiu will last until the first month, and many epidemic situations are effectively controlled. The consumption of part of the loss before the festival may be compensated after the festival. It is predicted that the sales of the famous spring festival wine will keep growing. In the future, high-end wine will continue to make progress in stability; The nationalization of sub high-end liquor continues to be promoted, and the performance of the sector is gradually differentiated; The structure of regional leaders will be upgraded, and the elasticity of future performance will continue to be released.
Our view: the high-end is the main driver of maowu, and the regional sub high-end leaders continue to exceed expectations. Maotai's national dynamic sales are basically not affected by the epidemic, and the channel inventory is about a week under the clearing policy in January; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in North China, central China and East China, mobile sales have increased significantly, and more attention is paid to consumer cultivation and terminal atmosphere building in playing methods; Anhui residents returned home ahead of the festival, and then gifts and party consumption were fully released, which returned to the atmosphere of 2019 as a whole; Jiangsu Province is less affected by the epidemic, the structural upgrading continues to perform, and the leading brands and mobile sales of Jiangsu wine have performed well.
High end liquor: the sales of Spring Festival liquor increased steadily. The demand for gift giving of high-end liquor before the Spring Festival is rigid. Maotai has the strongest toughness in all regions, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) perform better in their existing strong regions. 1) The price remained strong, the wholesale price of whole boxes and bulk bottles in Maotai remained at about 3200 yuan and 2800 yuan, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the wholesale price reached 960-980 yuan and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 910-930 yuan, which was basically consistent with the performance before the festival; 2) The overall inventory of dealers is low, and the social inventory in areas with serious epidemic is slightly higher. The inventory in many places of Maotai has been cleared before the Spring Festival, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and the national cellar have existed for 1-1.5 months, and the social inventory in North China and Henan affected by the epidemic has been 1-2 months; 3) The progress of payment collection and delivery is fast. The delivery of Maotai has been delivered to February, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) big business circulation terminal has completed the annual payment collection, the delivery progress of small and medium-sized businesses is about 25%, the proportion of payment collection before the national cellar Festival is higher than expected, and the delivery progress is about 25%.
Secondary high-end: the sector is gradually divided, and the fever of sauce and wine is ebbing. In terms of payment collection: under the expectation of price increase, sub high-end liquor enterprises generally have a fast pace of payment collection, and the proportion of Fen Liquor, Su liquor, Hui liquor, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and willing payment collection is better than that in the same period last year. In terms of dynamic sales: Hui liquor, Su liquor and Fen Liquor performed well in the province. The epidemic mainly affects the demand for banquets and wedding banquets, which are expected to be supplemented after the festival; At the same time, we found that the dynamic sales in regions with strong consumption capacity performed better, such as Shanghai, Anhui and Jiangsu. Henan, Beijing and Shaanxi were affected by a certain epidemic. However, referring to the trend in 2021, the demand for after festival banquets and wedding banquets is expected to be replenished. During the Spring Festival, the price was stable, the secondary high-end remained stable as a whole, while the second and third tier sauce and wine generally performed poorly, and the market share accelerated to the concentration of first-line sauce and wine such as Xijiu and Taiwan. It mainly focuses on Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) which are less affected by the epidemic and have strong dynamic sales. It is suggested to pay attention to yingjiagong, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and shede.
China Resources beer: the profit meets the expectation and adheres to the logic of increasing the average price. The company issued a pre increase announcement. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.4-4.7 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 110% - 124%. After deducting the after tax compensation income collected from land transfer, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.1-3.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 48% - 62%, which is in line with the expectation. The company's profit growth is mainly due to: (1) the gross profit increased due to the rise of the average selling price of products. In the first half of the year, the company's ASP increased by 7% year-on-year. In the second half of the year, affected by the epidemic, it is expected to slow down month on month, but still maintain the medium to high single digit level. (2) Administrative and other expenses decreased due to the impairment loss of fixed assets and the decrease of one-time recognized employee compensation and resettlement expenses, which offset the increase of sales and distribution expenses due to marketing and employee costs. We expect that the sales volume of 2021h2 company will be significantly affected by the epidemic, and the cost pressure will further increase month on month. It is expected that the gross profit margin will remain stable year-on-year. Under the cost pressure, the company is expected to alleviate the profit pressure by raising the price. It is expected that the effect will begin to be reflected in the peak season of 2022. We continue to emphasize that the core logic of the beer industry is high-end, promoting the continuous increase of average price, so as to drive the release of profits. When the current valuation of the sector is lower than the historical central level, we should rationally see the short-term sales volume and cost fluctuations, adhere to the medium and long-term ASP promotion logic, and it is suggested to actively pay attention to the beer sector.
Recommended combination in February: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . According to the change of combination logic, Maotai and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) with stable dynamic sales under the epidemic situation are recommended, as well as Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , which are less affected by the epidemic situation and both payment and dynamic sales continue to exceed expectations. In terms of food, it is recommended to actively pay attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) of the layout of restaurant stewed flavor and Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) of the expected profit elasticity.
Investment strategy: the layout is at the right time. Our main recommendation lines mainly focus on the following directions: (1) strong HENGQIANG's steady income companies: recommend Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , China Resources beer, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Chenguang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(300138) and other sub industry leaders; (2) high growth companies with fast expansion in the industry: recommend prefabricated vegetables, quick frozen industry, sub high end Baijiu, cheese industry, Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , etc. (3) Companies with cycle reversal and dilemma reversal: epidemic cycle recovery, recommended Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Haidilao, leader of oil enterprises, leader of meat products, etc. it is recommended to pay attention to Yihai International; It is expected to accelerate after adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and Zhou Heiya. For detailed recommendation logic, see strategy for 2022: price recovery is expected to accelerate the release of performance.
Risk tips: the risk of global and Chinese epidemic spread, the risk of large outflow of foreign capital, sauce and wine inventory and policy.
