Key investment points:
Market review of this week: SW light industry manufacturing industry lost 300 in Shanghai and Shenzhen this week. From January 24 to January 28, 2022, all shenwanyi industries recorded negative returns, and the decline was less than – 10%; SW light industry manufacturing industry index fell 5.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by about 1.20 percentage points in the same period. All secondary sub sectors of SW light manufacturing recorded negative returns, with SW entertainment products, SW household products, SW papermaking and SW packaging and printing down – 4.80%, – 5.30%, – 5.98% and – 6.43% respectively. Over 90% of the stocks in the industry recorded negative returns.
Key industry news: (1) according to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to December 2021, the national output of machine-made paper and paperboard was 135.839 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.833 million tons and a growth rate of 6.8%, breaking the 130 million tons mark for the first time, reaching a record high. In 2021, China’s domestic paper production capacity still maintained rapid growth. From January to December 2021, the cumulative production capacity of China’s household paper industry has been disclosed to be about 2.686 million T / A. in addition, there are some projects that have been put into operation but have not been disclosed to the public. Therefore, the cumulative new production capacity in 2021 has reached the largest amount in the history of China’s household paper industry since statistics have been available. (2) From January to December 2021, the output of machine-made paper and paperboard in Shanxi Province was 1.0802 million tons, an increase of 55.11% over the previous year, ranking the second in the country. (3) In 2021, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total profit of 8709.21 billion yuan, an increase of 34.3% over the previous year, 39.8% over 2019 and an average increase of 18.2% over the two years. Among them, the total profit of papermaking and paper products industry was 88.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%; The printing and recording media reproduction industry realized a total profit of 42.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%. (4) Packaging slimming is a major measure of “Green Express” in recent years. At present, more than 95% of JD express cartons have been reduced from the traditional 5-layer corrugated box to 3-layer, which is higher than the average level of 90% in European and American developed countries. On average, each package can reduce carbon emissions by 400 grams only on the packaging. By the end of last year, the packaging proportion of “slimming tape” below 45mm of Zhongtong express was nearly 95%, the secondary packaging rate of e-commerce express was no longer more than 70%, the utilization rate of recyclable transfer bags in the whole network was 96.22%, and about 21000 packaging waste recycling devices were added.
Maintain the recommended rating of the industry. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, China’s paper industry will end perfectly in 2021, with both volume and price rising. From January to December 2021, the output of machine-made paper and paperboard in China exceeded 130 million tons for the first time, reaching a record high; The production capacity of household paper maintained rapid growth. In addition, China’s paper and paper products industry achieved positive year-on-year growth in total profits in 2021. Under the current industry background, it is suggested to wait for the downstream demand of the paper industry to improve and continue to pay attention to China’s leading paper enterprises: (1) wood pulp leading paper enterprises: Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (002078), Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) (600966), Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) (000488), etc; (2) Waste paper is the leading paper enterprise: Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) (600567), etc; (3) Household paper is a leading company: C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) (002511), etc.
Risk tips: covid-19 epidemic continues to repeat, industry competition intensifies, real estate boom is less than expected, downstream demand is less than expected, raw material price fluctuation, tobacco policy risk, exchange rate fluctuation intensifies and other risks.
