The auto sector fell sharply the week before the festival, and the periphery rebounded during the Spring Festival. In the last week before the festival, the global auto sector fell sharply. ① in the overseas market, the average rise and fall of the 15 vehicle manufacturers we tracked was – 10.3% and the median was – 7.1%. ② In the Chinese market, CITIC automobile index fell 6.26%, ranking 23rd among 30 industries; Among them, passenger cars fell 7.57%, auto parts fell 5.64%, new energy vehicle index fell 3.18%, and smart vehicle index fell 7.06%. During the Spring Festival, the overseas automobile sector rebounded, with the average rise and fall of 15 vehicle manufacturers of 4.3% and the median of 2.1%. Among them, the ideal car (+ 19.7%), Xiaopeng car (+ 15.9%), Weilai (+ 14.6%) with large decline before the festival led the performance, while Ford (- 8.1%), Daimler (- 2.2%), BMW Group (- 2.1%) and other performance lagged behind.
China’s key new forces and independent brands announced the delivery volume in January, and the performance is still bright. 1) Xiaopeng delivered 12922 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 114.8% and a month-on-month increase of – 19.2%, breaking 10000 for five consecutive months; Among them, 6707 vehicles are delivered for P7, 4029 vehicles are delivered for P5 and 2186 vehicles are delivered for G3. 2) Weilai delivered 9652 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 33.6% and a month on month increase of – 8.0%; Among them, 1531 were delivered by es8, 5247 by ES6 and 2874 by ec6. 3) 12268 vehicles are expected to be delivered in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 128.1% and a month on month increase of – 12.9%, breaking 10000 for three consecutive months. 4) Other new forces: in January, Nezha, Zero run and extreme krypton delivered 11009, 8085 and 3530 vehicles respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 3.6%, + 8.7% and – 7.0% respectively. 5) In January Byd Company Limited(002594) , the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 93000, which was basically the same month on month; Among them, the sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) Han EV, Tang and dolphin were 12800, 9100 and 10600 respectively, and continued to increase. 6) GAC ea’an sold 16000 vehicles, down 3.9% month on month. On the whole, affected by the decline of subsidies in 2022 and the impulse at the end of 2021, the delivery of new energy vehicles decreased slightly month on month in January, but the performance is still bright.
In the first three weeks of January, the passenger car retail sales increased by + 10.7% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales increased by + 5.6% year-on-year. From the perspective of wholesale, the average sales volume of the first three Sundays were 52000, 58000 and 75000 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 4.2%, + 0.2% and + 21.8% respectively, and a month on month rate of – 2%, – 15% and – 6% respectively. From the retail perspective, the average sales volume of the first three Sundays were 58000, 63000 and 86000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.6%, – 1.9% and 27.7% respectively, and a month on month increase of + 27%, + 3% and 13% respectively. On the whole, the sales volume of passenger cars gradually improved in January. The cumulative daily average wholesale sales and retail sales in the first three weeks were 61000 and 68000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.7% and + 5.6% respectively, and a month-on-month increase of – 8% and + 14% respectively in December 2021.
Investment suggestions: 1) continue to be optimistic about auto parts. It is suggested to pay attention to: ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Lightweight, focus on Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ③ Intelligent driving industry chain, Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , sunny optical technology, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Nextel, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) ; 2) The trend of independent rise is clear. The vehicle manufacturer suggests paying attention to Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and the undervalued value Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
