Investment strategy: this week, coal prices continued to rise. Near the Spring Festival, coal mines stopped production one after another and the supply was tightened; Affected by the Winter Olympic Games, the power plant actively picked up the warehouse, and the building materials and chemical industry also prepared the goods in advance, which supported the price. Since the 26th of the twelfth lunar month, coal mines, terminal enterprises and transportation began to have holidays, gradually forming a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term coal price will run smoothly. Indonesia’s minister of energy and Resources said that a total of 171 coal enterprises have been allowed to export since January. In addition, the Indonesian Ministry of energy is still evaluating the compliance of hundreds of miners. At present, the demand of overseas coal market is strong, resources are relatively scarce, and the price of Indonesian coal has increased significantly. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the shipment of Indonesian coal. Last week, many coal enterprises disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) realized a net profit attributable to parent company of 50.3 billion yuan (+ 28%), Yankuang energy of 16 billion yuan (+ 124.67%), and power investment energy of 3.56 billion yuan (+ 71.9%). The substantial release of coal enterprises’ performance and the full release of superimposed coal price risk are conducive to the continuous catalysis of the market of the sector. In the medium and long term, under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term association also ensures the ability of the industry to maintain high profitability. Under the dual carbon goal, coal enterprises urgently need transformation, power investment, energy Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and other major forces are in the direction of new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and willingness. The transformation of new energy direction is conducive to improving the overall sector valuation level (at present, the PE valuation is 5-6 times), and the coal assets need to be repriced, Continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. Thermal coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of power coal: the demand for replenishment of storage is supported, and the coal price runs strongly. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 1070 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, continuing the rise. In terms of supply, near the Spring Festival, the coal mines in the producing areas have stopped production and holidays one after another, the supply has been tightened as a whole, and most coal mines have basically no inventory accumulation; The terminal goods are actively prepared, the platform shipment is good, there are many long-distance transport vehicles, and the price of coal mines in production has increased slightly. In terms of import, there have been many bidding for downstream power plants recently, but there are few resources. The coal price in Indonesia has increased significantly. Now, the quotation of large ship type in Indonesia (cv3800) is about fob75 US dollars. In terms of demand, the Spring Festival is approaching, downstream enterprises have holidays one after another, and procurement slows down. However, affected by the Winter Olympic Games, some power plants pick up the warehouse, and building materials and chemical industry prepare goods after the festival, which supports the price. On the whole, the coal supply continued to be tight this week. In the case of shortage of available resources, the downstream replenishment demand supported the coal price to rise slightly. In the follow-up, we will pay attention to the holiday arrangement and the daily consumption of the power plant.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: both supply and demand are weak, mainly stable. As of January 28, the price (including tax) of Shanxi main coke coal depot in Jingtang Port was raised by 2830 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. In terms of supply, at present, some coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have stopped production and holidays, the overall construction has declined significantly, and the supply side has been further tightened. In terms of import, the epidemic situation in Mongolia is still severe recently. The number of customs clearance at Ganqi Maodu port remains low. This week, the port has been cleared for 4 days, with an average of 89 vehicles per day (week on week – 3 vehicles). Recently, most small and medium-sized traders have left the city for vacation, and the transaction at the port is cold. In terms of demand, the replenishment of downstream coke enterprises has basically ended. Coupled with the expectation of production restriction in February, most of them have stopped purchasing, and the demand side is weak as a whole. On the whole, the supply and demand of coking coal market are both weak, and the price is mainly stable. Follow up attention will be paid to the implementation of production restriction.
Summary and Prospect of coke: the production restriction of steel mills is stronger than that of coke enterprises, and gradually presents the pattern of supply-demand mismatch. As of January 28, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3200 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis, and the national average profit per ton of coke was about 159 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, coke enterprises had good production enthusiasm this week, but due to the impact of large-scale snowfall and the reduction of traffic flow before the festival, the coke in the plant accumulated significantly; With the Winter Olympic Games approaching, the implementation of the production restriction policy of coke enterprises is slow. At present, only a few coke enterprises implement about 50% of the production restriction, and the overall commencement is still high. In terms of demand, the stock replenishment of downstream steel mills before the festival has basically ended. Some blast furnaces in Hebei have successively implemented the requirements of stopping and limiting production. A few steel mills control the arrival of goods, mainly to digest the existing inventory, and the demand for coke has dropped significantly. On the whole, the production restriction at the supply side is weak, while the production restriction at the steel plant is strengthened, and the supply and demand structure of the steel plant tends to be in surplus. In the follow-up, pay attention to the production restriction and the changes of upstream and downstream inventory.
Power coal: the price of port coal rises and the port inventory decreases. (1) As of January 28, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 1070 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of January 27, the price of power coal in Newcastle was US $262.63/ton, up 15.6% week on week. (3) As of January 28, the transfer in volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 367000 tons, with a decrease of 117000 tons compared with the ring road. (4) As of January 28, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.02 million tons, with a decrease of 80000 tons on a weekly basis. The coal inventory in the Yangtze River Estuary was 3.23 million tons, with a decrease of 170000 tons on a weekly basis.
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China was flat, and the inventory of coking plants increased month on month. (1) As of January 28, the price increase (including tax) of the main coking coal depot produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port was 2830 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. (2) As of January 27, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was US $463.0/ton, up 3.70% on a weekly basis. (3) As of January 28, the total inventory of coking coal in China’s independent coking plants (100) was 13.96 million tons, an increase of 380000 tons on a weekly basis.
Coke: the price was flat month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant decreased. (1) As of January 28, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3200 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. (2) As of January 28, the coke oven productivity of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 75.90%, with a decrease of 0.80% on a weekly basis. (3) As of December 24, the national blast furnace operating rate was 45.99%, with a decrease of 0.42% on a weekly basis. (4) As of January 28, the total coke inventory of three types of coking enterprises (production capacity 2 million tons) was 840000 tons, and the surrounding area increased by 103000 tons.
Review of industry highlights: (1) coal in 2021 The “tax reduction, refund and postponement” of electricity and heating enterprises reached 27.1 billion yuan (2) the energy conservation and emission reduction plan of the 14th five year plan: focus on coal and strictly and reasonably control the growth of coal consumption (3) the power consumption of the whole society in the five southern provinces and regions increased by 11.1% year-on-year in 2021 (4) the coal output of Xilin Gol League increased by 11.0% in 2021 (5) 171 Indonesian coal enterprises have been approved to resume export, and hundreds of enterprises are still under evaluation
Risk warning: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Risk of coal import impact.
