Event:
The Ministry of culture and tourism disclosed the data of the spring festival tourism market. In the three days before the holiday, China's tourism trips totaled 137 million, realizing China's tourism revenue of 167.849 billion yuan.
Comments:
During the Spring Festival holiday, the tourism market recovered weakly month on month, and the overall consumption expenditure of residents maintained a steady growth
According to the data of the Ministry of culture, tourism and tourism, 137 million people traveled in China in the first three days of the holiday, which recovered to 71.5% in the same period of the Spring Festival in 2019 according to a comparable standard. The recovery rate was weak compared with 70% in the golden week of November 2021. This was mainly due to the repeated epidemic in many parts of the country since January 2022, and the travel of provinces and cities such as Beijing and Zhejiang was limited. Population mobility has increased, and the overall consumption expenditure of residents is expected to maintain a steady growth. According to Netcom data, in the five days before the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, the Netcom platform handled 6.236 billion inter agency online payment transactions, with an amount of 4.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and 11.6%.
The number of trips increased better than the number of tourists, and the demand for home visits or outbound tourism was diverted
Benefit from the epidemic prevention policy and eliminate one size fits all. According to the data of the Ministry of communications, 104 million passengers were sent across the country from New Year's Eve to the fifth day of the lunar new year in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 36%, higher than the growth rate of 25% of the average daily passengers of the tourism market in the three days before the Spring Festival in 2022 (compared with the average daily passengers of seven days in 2021, so it is expected to be overestimated, because the average daily passengers of the first three days are high). We believe that this may reflect that under the strict control of the local Chinese new year last year, the population flow during the Spring Festival this year is mainly based on the demand for returning home to visit relatives, which inhibits the residents' demand for traveling to a certain extent. In the future, this part of the demand may be postponed to other golden weeks in 2022.
Hainan tourism market is the highlight of the holiday, and the surrounding tourism market is hot
From the disclosed data of various provinces, Hainan tourism market is one of the few bright spots. During the Spring Festival, the number of passengers at Haikou and Sanya airports increased strongly. Among them, the number of passengers sent by Haikou Meilan Airport from New Year's Eve to the fifth day increased by 61% year-on-year, the number of inbound and outbound passengers at Sanya Phoenix Airport increased by 40% year-on-year from January 30 to February 4, and the average daily number of passengers recovered to 80% in 2019. The growth of peripheral tourism and local tourism is strong, and hotel vacation and camping have become the trend. According to Ctrip data, 65% of the orders for tourism and holiday products in the province were booked during the Spring Festival this year, and the orders for intra provincial travel increased significantly compared with the Spring Festival in 2019.
Investment advice
The marginal recovery trend of the tourism market during the Spring Festival holiday has appeared, and the growth rate of social consumption may increase under the background of increased population mobility. Reiterate the view of industry strategy in 2022. With the continuous promotion of covid-19 vaccine and specific drugs and the transformation of epidemic prevention policy to precise regulation, the marginal improvement trend of offline consumer service industry is clear. It is suggested to allocate it from the two dimensions of short-term marginal recovery + medium and long-term competitiveness, focusing on tax exemption ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ), hotels ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group-s) Catering (jiumaojiu), scenic spots and related equipment ( Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) ).
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic has been disturbed repeatedly, and the adjustment progress of China's travel control policy is less than expected
