Market review: from January 24 to January 28, 2022, CITIC consumer service industry index rose by 0.07% as a whole, ranking first among all CITIC primary industry indexes, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 4.58 percentage points in the same period. Among the segments of CITIC’s consumer service industry, in addition to the tourism and leisure sector rising by 1.65%, education, comprehensive services and hotel catering fell by 1.89%, 3.61% and 4.12% respectively, all outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. There were 12 listed companies that achieved positive returns in the industry, of which the top five were Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) , up 7.62%, 6.50%, 4.83%, 2.94% and 2.86% respectively. 42 companies achieved negative returns, of which the top five listed companies were Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Dalian Sunasia Tourism Holding Co.Ltd(600593) , Suzhou Kingswood Education Technology Co.Ltd(300192) , Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) , Tempus Global Business Service Group Holding Ltd(300178) , down 12.68%, 12.79%, 12.86%, 13.14% and 22.65% respectively. As of January 28, 2022, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC’s consumer service industry was about 40.16 times, slightly higher than last week and 46.74 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive services are 36.46 times, 53.55 times, 48.69 times and 59.58 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of February 4, 2022, the covid-19 vaccination volume per 100 people in China has reached 20793 doses, the cumulative covid-19 vaccination volume has reached 303 million doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 1247700 doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 129.24 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 52.12%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 17.746 million doses.
Important news: (1) Zeng Guang, a member of the high-level expert group of the National Health Commission, said that blindly canceling or relaxing restrictions on international travel would bring disastrous consequences. (2) According to Ctrip data, 65% of the orders for travel and vacation products in the province were booked during the Spring Festival in 2022, and the orders for travel within the province increased significantly compared with the Spring Festival in 2019.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. This week, individual stocks in scenic spots performed better than the market, and the bottom of the market was confirmed. The proportion of short distance travel in the spring festival tourism market has further increased, the passenger flow of Spring Festival transportation has increased significantly, and the impact of the epidemic has been gradually reduced. Guided by the 14th five year plan, 2022 is expected to be the year of tourism recovery. It is suggested to pay careful attention to the leading outbound tourists Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) (000796), Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) (002707) benefiting from the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism; Recommended franchisees account for a relatively high proportion of chain hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258) with stable performance, artificial scenic spot leaders Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (300144) with large performance flexibility, and Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) (603099) is expected to benefit from the Winter Olympic effect in the short term.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; Repeated outbreaks and other risks.
