Report summary
\u3000\u30001. New energy vehicle
In January 2022, a number of new forces in China delivered more than 10000 electric vehicles
We believe that from the disclosed data, in January 2022, the delivery volume of electric vehicles by many Chinese car enterprises increased rapidly year-on-year, including more than 10000 vehicles per month, such as Xiaopeng and ideal. Compared with the whole year, the first quarter is the off-season for the sales of new energy vehicles, which is superimposed with the influence of the Spring Festival holiday. The delivery of electric vehicles decreased slightly month on month, but it is still at a high level. In the long run, the action plan for carbon peak before 2030 proposes that “the proportion of new energy and clean energy powered vehicles will reach about 40% by 2030”, which will further open the development space of new energy vehicles. The high-profile trend will not decrease, which will promote the continuous growth of production and sales, and China is expected to enter the stage of accelerated penetration of electrification, Driving the demand of the middle and upper reaches will continue to expand.
The sales volume of five Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in Europe was announced in January 2022
We believe that from the published data of some European countries, in January 2022, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 41.12% year-on-year, with a certain decline month on month. By category, Bev increased by 84.15% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid growth trend; PHEV increased by 6.04% year-on-year, achieving stable growth. From the perspective of penetration rate, the total penetration rate of new energy vehicles in January increased by 6.60pct to 19.30% year-on-year, maintaining a high penetration level. The carbon emission policy is becoming stricter, and all car enterprises continue to launch high-quality model supply. The medium and long-term European market will maintain the rapid growth trend of electrification, and are optimistic about the middle and upper reaches suppliers with stable and good supply capacity in the European market.
Tesla announces the fourth quarter and full year results of 2021
We believe that benefiting from the global trend of electrification and the improvement of its own capacity, Tesla‘s total delivery in 2021 achieved a high growth of more than 80% year-on-year, and the quarterly delivery increased month on month, driving excellent profit performance. At the stage of accelerating the penetration of global electric vehicles, with Tesla’s technical upgrading in the field of electric vehicles, the improvement of model structure and the expansion of production capacity, the delivery volume is expected to be further improved in the future, and the core suppliers will continue to benefit.
Core view:
We believe that with the continuous improvement of the sales structure and quality of new energy vehicles and the continuous introduction of high-quality new models, the supply will drive the change of demand, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate, and the sales volume is expected to achieve rapid growth. Optimistic:
1) leading high growth and high certainty opportunities, and the core supply chain of Tesla, Volkswagen MEB platform, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG chemistry, new forces, Hongguang miniev and other models with best-selling potential;
2) subdivide the leading track and have significant technology / cost moat advantage targets in the industry competition;
3) the demand for long endurance and fast charging is expanding, and the positive materials, lithium salt additives, conductive agents and other links driving technological innovation and product iteration;
4) the demand for high nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries brought about by the development of high-end + economic polarization, and the pattern of ternary cathode materials continues to be optimized under the trend of high nickel;
5) the increase of sales volume drives the increase of demand, and it is expected that the supply and demand of copper foil, diaphragm and other links are tight;
6) the accelerated layout of production capacity is expected to significantly benefit the relevant targets of the rapid growth of industry demand;
7) second tier targets that benefit from the growth of the industry and the continuous improvement of their own competitiveness and are expected to expand market share;
8) energy storage, two wheeled vehicles and other segments with structural opportunities; Continuous improvement of charging facilities.
Beneficiary objects: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co.Ltd(300953) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) etc.
\u3000\u30002. new energy
The scenery base continued to advance
We believe that: 1) China’s deserts, Gobi and desert areas are relatively vast. The construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects in these areas is conducive to the full use of land resources and scenery resources, and can effectively improve resource utilization and development efficiency; 2) The first batch of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base projects in China have been started successively in October 2021. The large-scale project base will become an important part of China’s wind power and photovoltaic development in the future, and will form a strong support for the new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic in recent years.
Core view:
(1) photovoltaic
In the medium and long term, “carbon peaking”, “carbon neutralization” and the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% / 25% in 2025 / 2030. The goal is clear. Photovoltaic and other new energy will play an important role in energy transformation and carbon emission reduction in the future. Pay attention to the supply-demand relationship under market changes and structural opportunities under technological changes, such as inverter, photovoltaic adhesive film, photovoltaic glass, vertically integrated manufacturers, distributed photovoltaic, consumables and equipment links, photovoltaic support, etc.
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) etc.
(2) wind power
In the short term, the trend of large-scale fan is significant, and the overall cost is expected to decline; With the continuous promotion of large-scale scenery base projects and the acceleration of offshore wind power cost reduction, the wind power scenery is expected to be improved. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. We continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry.
Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following links: 1) the wind power landscape continues to rise, and look forward to the opportunities of domestic components under the trend of large-scale and pattern changes, such as tower, spindle, casting, blade and other links; 2) Optimistic about the profit recovery link under the price adjustment of raw materials; 3) Optimistic about the domestic replacement of precision parts such as spindle bearings; 4) Optimistic about the opportunities under the changes of the whole machine link pattern and technology; 5) The cost of offshore wind power continues to drop, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. We are optimistic about marine products, submarine cables and other related links.
Beneficiary objects: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc.
(3) energy storage
In 2025, the target of energy storage installed capacity, market position and business model have been clarified, relevant national and local policies have been further improved, and energy storage will accelerate with renewable energy; With the application of new derived ecosystems such as superimposed distributed power stations, charging piles and microgrids, the energy storage on the generation side, grid side and user side will meet new application requirements. We are optimistic about the three main lines of lithium battery, inverter and energy storage system integration under the development opportunity of energy storage, and benefit targets: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) .
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicle industry does not meet expectations; The improvement of new energy installation and power rationing did not meet expectations; Risk of sharp decline in product price; The development of the epidemic exceeded the expected risk.
