Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: quick view of performance forecast
The impact of impairment is unprecedented: the differentiation trend in the building materials industry continues, the growth of high-quality enterprises continues to be realized, the performance of some enterprises is lower than expected, and bad debts are a great drag. Among the 42 building materials enterprises that disclosed the performance forecast or performance express, 14 suffered losses in advance and 28 made profits in advance, of which 16 enterprises are expected to achieve positive growth in net profit year-on-year. The performance of most enterprises in the sector was lower than the market expectation, mainly because the accounts receivable of problematic real estate customers could not be recovered last year, which led to the withdrawal and the rise of raw material prices, which impacted the profitability.
Chaotic cloud ferry is still calm: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) : the annual performance reached a new height, and the profit of Q4 declined in a single quarter. The company expects that the operating revenue in 2021 will be 13.845 billion yuan to 15.302 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.044 billion yuan to 4.466 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 121.35% to 144.65%; The double pressure of raw material costs and expenses makes the profitability fluctuate. We calculate that the gross profit of single heavy box of float raw film has decreased from 64 yuan to 47 yuan per heavy box. In addition, the accrual of equity incentive and other expenses further affects the profitability. We continue to be optimistic about the supply and demand pattern of float glass industry. The company is basically stable, and new products such as photovoltaic glass and electronic glass help accelerate its growth. Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) : the retail business has strong profitability. The company predicted that the annual net profit was 660 million yuan to 760 million yuan, an increase of 63.89% to 88.72% over the same period in 2020. The company has created an easy to install mode, transforming from a sector raw material enterprise to a consumer home decoration enterprise, providing customized home decoration solutions and improving the added value of products. In 2020, the company opened 350 new easy to wear stores and signed more than 50 custom processing centers, which significantly improved its customer service ability.
Gold comes when the sand is blown out: after the credit impairment is fully accrued, the growth relay will continue. Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) it is predicted that the annual operating revenue is expected to reach 7.516-8.590 billion yuan, and the net profit is between 34 million yuan and 51 million yuan, compared with 85.186 million yuan in the same period last year. The company's revenue increased by 5% - 20% compared with the same period last year, basically in line with expectations, but the net profit decreased significantly. As of December 31, the total amount of various receivables between the company and the real estate customers was about 698 million yuan. We estimated that the annual provision scale of credit impairment loss of the company was between 700 million yuan and 800 million yuan, which had a great impact on the company's performance, but the risk had been fully exposed. D&O Home Collection Co.Ltd(002798) the annual net profit is expected to be 272 million yuan to 369 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.87% - 51.99% compared with 566.58 million yuan in 2020. Tracking of key sub industries:
Glass: as of January 28, the average price of the latest glass in China was 2109.3 yuan / ton, up 1.5% month on month compared with the previous week, rising for the second consecutive week. The market rigid demand has basically disappeared. At present, it is mainly the demand for goods preparation. The overall goods preparation is relatively positive, the market adjustment power is weak, and the price deposit is expected to rise in the early stage after the festival. The total inventory of manufacturers in key monitoring provinces was 35.1 million weight boxes, down 1.35% from last week. Manufacturers continued to go to the warehouse before the festival. The inventory of manufacturers in Shahe area was about 6.4 million boxes, down 400000 boxes month on month. After the Spring Festival, the rebound in demand and the rise in raw material costs will move the glass price center upward. Under the expectation of changing coal to gas in Shahe area, manufacturers mainly support the price. At present, there are 13 production lines in Shahe area, which may switch to natural gas. The change of fuel structure leads to the increase of cost, which supports the price. One of the 22 production lines in Shahe area has been in production for more than 10 years, with great uncertainty at the supply side. At present, it has entered the window period of glass layout. We will continue to focus on recommending Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) integrated leading Lutheran glass, which has entered a new growth period and has continuously increased its market share.
Cement: as of January 28, 2022, the national average price of cement was 470.42 yuan / ton, down 0.14% from last week and up 6.01% from last year. In winter, the marginal demand of cement terminal drops and the price continues to fall. Provinces and regions across the country have successively announced plans to stop kilns during peak shifts in the first quarter, and the number of days to stop kilns generally exceeded that in the same period last year. The northern provinces continued to implement staggered peak production from January to March, and the kiln closures in the southern provinces in the first quarter were mostly concentrated during the Spring Festival. The inventory of enterprises increased slightly compared with last week, and the average national clinker storage capacity ratio was 56.01%, an increase of 0.05% compared with last week. The average price difference between cement and coal in this period was 330.48 yuan / ton, down 5.46% from last week.
Consumer building materials: the sentiment of the sector will continue to be suppressed before the real estate sales commencement data pick up, and the leading waterproof and pipe leaders in non real estate business will be preferred. Lengthening the time line, the logic of the continuous increase of the market share of consumer building materials enterprises is still the main line of investment in the building materials industry. After experiencing the real estate credit crisis in 2021, enterprises will pay more attention to the operation quality, the trend of market share concentration to the leader remains unchanged, and the growth attribute of the industry leader is still not very significant. Continue to recommend Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) and China Liansu. Market review: as of the closing on January 28, the building materials sector fell 5.49% and the CSI 300 index fell 4.51%. From the sector ranking, the building materials sector ranked 20th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, with an increase of - 7.65% year to date, and ranked 15th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan.
The top three stocks rose: Yunnan Bowin Technology Industry Co.Ltd(600883) , Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Hubei Sanxia New Building Materials Co.Ltd(600293) .
The top five stocks fell: Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Jiangsu Jingxue Insulation Technology Co.Ltd(301010) , Zhengwei new material, Luoyang Northglass Technology Co.Ltd(002613) , Goody Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002694) . Investment strategy: focus on recommending Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) with dominant consumption attribute in building materials, Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) with constant strength of the strong, Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) with high prosperity of traditional business and entering a new growth period, and Xinyi Glass, an industrial leader with continuously increasing market share; It is recommended to pay attention to China Liansu, the leader of engineering plastic pipe benefiting from infrastructure investment, and the cement market and steel structure leader Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) driven by the expected rise of infrastructure.
Risk tip: the demand of real estate chain declines, infrastructure investment slows down, and the price of raw materials fluctuates.
