Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on January 28, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 415.1 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 1 million barrels; Gasoline inventory was 250 million barrels, an increase of 2.1 million barrels per week; Distillate oil inventory was 122.7 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 2.4 million barrels; Propane inventory was 4975.2 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 4.325 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on January 28, 2022, U.S. crude oil production was 11.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 100000 barrels per day per week and an increase of 600000 barrels per day compared with a year ago. On February 4, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 613, with an increase of 3 in the week and 221 in the year; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 218, with an increase of 1 in a week and 47 in a year. Among them, there are 497 oil production rigs in the United States, with an increase of 2 in the week and 198 in the year.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week (January 24-january 30) were trichloroethylene (up 27.2%), butadiene (up 22.6%) and p-xylene (up 15.9%); The top three declines were glycine (down 14.6%), urea International (down 9.9%) and n-butanol (down 5.9%).
Core view
On a monthly basis, the top three products with price increases were butadiene (up 62.1%), butyl acrylate (up 30.1%) and trichloroethylene (up 30.0%); The top three declines were urea International (down 21.2%), BDO apron (down 18.6%) and yellow phosphorus (down 17.5%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week (January 24-january 30) are butadiene price difference (up 410.6%), butyl acrylate price difference (up 289.9%) and PX (up 261.0%); The top three declines were R134a spread (down 89.2%), MTP spread (down 35.5%) and PTA (down 32.2%).
Monthly, the top three products with price difference increase were calcium carbide PVC price difference (up 259.1%), R410A price difference (up 200.0%) and butadiene price difference (up 189.5%); The top three declines were polyvinyl alcohol price difference (down 101.2%), R134a price difference (down 91.4%) and carbon black price difference (down 54.1%).
Investment proposal and investment object
On the other hand, we are optimistic that the demand for adipic acid and adipic acid will start to expand significantly in the future. On the other hand, the demand for adipic acid will be greatly constrained by the two new carbon production targets of PBAT and adipic acid. We believe that the price center of adipic acid in the future is likely to be similar to the current BDO. It is estimated that the price and price difference of adipic acid in the future are expected to reach 17000 yuan / ton and 10000 yuan / ton respectively, with a high profit ceiling. It is suggested to focus on Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (600426, buy) and Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346, buy). The former has a capacity of 360000 tons of adipic acid and has a certain capacity of expansion; The latter plans to build a new capacity of 300000 tons of adipic acid.
Risk tips
China’s policy changes; The project progress does not meet expectations; Oil prices fluctuated sharply.
