Key investment points
The three characteristics of the Spring Festival: differentiation and centralization have new manifestations, and the importance of demand pull is prominent
① there are new manifestations of differentiation - the feedback differentiation of regional mobile sales is serious, and the three elements of "increased return rate + good economic environment + little impact of the epidemic" are the commonalities of regions with good mobile sales. We believe that it is difficult to divide East China, North China and central China. Even some East China regions with small impact of the epidemic and good economic environment are mediocre, while Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi and other regions that meet the requirements of "increased return rate + good economic environment + small impact of the epidemic" are excellent.
② centralization has new performance - under the new characteristics of consumption upgrading, the market share is concentrated to mature single products, and new products are only in large quantities in advantageous markets. This year's Spring Festival, the top enterprises enjoyed a centralized dividend rather than a structural improvement dividend. The reason behind this is that consumers began to pursue "cost performance" in the process of consumption upgrading. Correspondingly, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and other mature single products of liquor enterprises achieved large volume in the advantageous areas of the base camp during the Spring Festival this year, and the new Jianxiang 518 also performed well in the old base camp market; At the same time, in the 1000 yuan price band, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) achieved steady growth under last year's high base and still maintained a high share, while the performance of Xijiu, Langjiu and other brands that have risen strongly in recent years is weaker than that of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) .
③ the final victory or defeat lies in the cultivation of consumers - with the gradual homogenization of channel operation, the demand pull will determine the final victory or defeat. We found that during the Spring Festival, the data feedback from supermarkets and chain stores in Dalian was excellent, while the feedback from small and medium-sized tobacco hotels was general, mainly because the brand stores had fixed / high viscosity consumer groups, while the consumer groups behind tobacco hotels were relatively scattered, which is the same for wine enterprises.
Industry Spring Festival Performance: the consumption environment is limited by the epidemic, and the stock replenishment after the festival is still in progress
From the perspective of consumption environment: under the precise prevention and control, the consumption environment is generally less affected by the epidemic, and the return consumption has increased significantly. With the gradual unsealing of areas greatly affected by the epidemic, Henan and other areas will also meet the back and forth demand wave, superimpose the implementation of policies such as stabilizing the economy, and the overall alcohol consumption environment will be better. From the perspective of industry operation logic: 1) the trend of strong differentiation between the two ends continues, and the national brand liquor enterprises rely on strong regional allocation to maintain smooth sales and healthy channels; 2) The local epidemic will affect the distribution of sales, and the regional liquor that is less affected by this round of epidemic has certain advantages. The 2022 Spring Festival is expected to continue for 21 years, with "small volume and rapid increase in price". At the same time, it will become the second year of "de stocking of channels and terminals". At present, the wholesale prices of major single products are stable and good, and the inventory is healthy. After the year, liquor enterprises may usher in a replenishment tide (regional liquor is more deterministic).
High end and sub high end liquor: the dynamic sales of high-end liquor are stable, and the regional dynamic sales of liquor are slightly higher than expected
① in terms of high-end liquor (more than 800 yuan), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is generally out of stock; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the case of last year's high base, terminals generally feedback that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Spring Festival mobile sales are flat or slightly increased compared with last year, and terminals are generally confident that their prices will continue to move up; The performance of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangxi and Liaoning is relatively weak (related to that these regions are not Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) key markets); ② In terms of sub high-end regional liquor (300-800 yuan), the national sub high-end liquor is differentiated, while the regional sub high-end liquor is generally better. The transaction price of Guoyuan Sikai and mengzhilan m3 crystal version in Northern Jiangsu is basically the same, and the price of Guoyuan Sikai is slightly higher. The price of crystal dream and tianzhilan upgraded version has increased significantly, and the channel thrust has been significantly improved compared with last year. Tianzhilan has basically realized the replacement, and the channel feedback is that Yanghe and Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) terminals are out of stock. The regional liquor sales generally gave excellent feedback, and the consumption at the price below 100 yuan gradually moved upward. Among them, Gu 16 / 20 continued to maintain excellent performance, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) 10-year growth was obvious, the performance of Yingjia Dongzang series was excellent, and Yanghe had a certain visibility.
Medium and high-end: the regional characteristics are obvious, and the structural upgrading is still continuing
Jiangsu is dominated by Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Yanghe and Shuanggou, among which the northern part of Jiangsu is soft and elegant and the Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) collection is excellent, while the southern part of Jiangsu is dominated by Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) collection, Yanghe Haitian, langpai Tequ T6 and the national edge, and the proportion of Yanghe products is higher; The mainstream price in Anhui has risen to 200 yuan, and Gujing, kouzi and Yingjia middle and high-end products have excellent performance; Zhejiang, Shanghai and Guangxi are dominated by famous liquor series, site, Xifeng and other wines.
Investment advice
Based on the three differentiated characteristics of the Spring Festival observation, we believe that we need to select the target by grasping the short-term catalysis + dynamic sales and inventory prediction (determining the 22q2 performance) + the progress of payment collection (determining the 22q1 performance) + the long-term development direction - we recommend to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (marketing reform + non-standard price increase of series wine + new product listing = thickened performance + still expected price increase) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (the management will gradually stabilize + marginal improvement logic), Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (low base of dynamic sales + continuous release of potential energy of Dongzang series + continuous channel reform), Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (continuous internal reform + marginal improvement logic).
Risk warning: 1. Overseas epidemic affects China's two outbreak or prevention and control upgrade, affecting the overall Baijiu recovery. 2. The price rise of high-end liquor was lower than expected.
