Since the beginning of 2022, the green power sector has made significant adjustments. We believe that there are three main reasons: first, under the expectation of steady economic growth, the market is worried that the dual control of energy consumption has weakened; Second, the performance forecast loss of thermal power enterprises to curb market sentiment; Third, there is a need to adjust the valuation of the sector, and some funds rush ahead in advance.
After the green power callback, the core question to be answered in this report is to explore the differences between green power operators and traditional power enterprises. From the income calculation formula of power enterprises, the core driving factor of income growth of traditional power enterprises lies in the influence of policies (policies drive the growth of installed capacity and the change of utilization hours, etc.). For green power enterprises, in addition to the impact of policies, technological innovation and power market-oriented reform also have an important impact on their income. The pilot of green power trading is launched, which brings marginal benefits to green power enterprises from the perspective of electricity price, while carbon emission quota trading and CCER bring incremental performance sources to green power enterprises.
The consumption level is an important driving force behind the rise in the utilization hours of wind, solar and green power. Since 2016, the utilization hours of wind power generation have shown an increasing trend. The core reason is that the policy driven wind and light rejection rate has decreased, and the consumption level of wind power has increased significantly. In the future, the policy will continue to promote the consumption of wind power and solar power to maintain a high level, but the space for policy factors to promote the growth of utilization hours of green power enterprises may be relatively limited.
In addition to the policy, technological innovation will drive the utilization hours of green power enterprises to further increase. Technological innovation promotes the efficiency of wind power generation, which is reflected in the growth of utilization hours in the income calculation model.
1) in terms of photovoltaic power generation, technological innovations such as the improvement of module photoelectric conversion efficiency, the use of tracking support and the use of new silicon wafer materials will help to promote the growth of utilization hours of photovoltaic power generation. Taking the photoelectric conversion efficiency of modules as an example, the battery technology innovation will promote the continuous growth of the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic photovoltaic modules. According to our calculation, when the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic modules increases from 23.0% to 26.5%, the utilization hours of a given photovoltaic power station will increase from 1318 hours to 1519 hours, an increase of 15.25%.
2) in terms of wind power, the large-scale development of wind turbines and intelligent operation and maintenance will promote the growth of wind power generation efficiency. We calculated the influence of the growth of fan capacity and impeller diameter on the utilization hours of wind turbine. The calculation results show that on the basis of given power curve and regional wind energy hour probability distribution, when the fan impeller diameter is 120m, the corresponding utilization hours of 3, 4, 6 and 8mW fans are 1703, 1916, 2159 and 2249 hours respectively, the utilization hours of 6MW fans are 26.78% higher than that of 3MW fans, and the utilization hours of 8mW fans are 17.38% higher than that of 4MW fans. When the fan capacity is 3MW, when the impeller diameter increases from 120 to 170m, the utilization hours increase from 1703 hours to 2314 hours, an increase of 35.88%.
Green power transaction: the price side brings marginal income to green power enterprises. The transaction price of the first batch of green power pilot transactions is 3-5 points higher than the benchmark coal price, while the latest green power transaction price in some provinces is further higher than expected. From the perspective of supply and demand in the green power trading market, the green power trading market may still be in a situation of short supply, and the environmental value premium of green power may continue. At the same time, the reform of power marketization has been continuously promoted, and the green power trading market has further entered a new stage. The national development and Reform Commission recently issued the guiding opinions on accelerating the construction of a national unified power market system, which made it clear that by carrying out green power trading, we can find the environmental value of green power and guide users in need to buy directly; Recently, the implementation plan for promoting green consumption jointly issued by seven ministries and commissions puts forward the requirement to stimulate the green power consumption potential of the whole society.
Carbon reduction and incremental trading mechanism: bring carbon reduction to enterprises. According to our calculation, in a given wind power project, when the carbon emission reduction of kilowatt hour power is 0.85kgco2e and the transaction price of CCER is within the range of 20-50 yuan / ton, the corresponding CCER transaction income accounts for 17.82% – 44.56% of the net profit of the project. In a given photovoltaic power generation project, when the carbon emission reduction per kilowatt hour is 0.90kgco2e and the transaction price of CCER is in the range of 20-50 yuan / ton, the proportion of the corresponding CCER transaction income in the net profit of the project is in the range of 20.03% – 50.07%. Looking forward to the future, with more industries included in the national carbon trading market and the implementation of possible carbon emission quota supply restriction measures, on the one hand, it will increase the demand for CCER and carbon emission quota trading, on the other hand, it will increase the transaction price, increase both volume and price, and promote the further growth of the income of green power enterprises. From a long-term perspective, carbon trading and CCER trading revenue are also expected to become one of the sources of incremental performance of green power enterprises.
Investment suggestion: the low-carbon transformation of energy structure continues to advance, the installed capacity of green power is high during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the growth is highly deterministic. At the same time, driven by policy guarantee, consumption and technology, the utilization hours are expected to rise. In addition, the green power pilot transaction was launched, which brought marginal benefits to green power enterprises from the price side, and carbon emission quota transaction and CCER transaction brought incremental performance sources to green power enterprises. Considering the factors such as installed capacity, utilization hours and electricity price, the green power sector is expected to maintain a high outlook during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is suggested to actively grasp the investment opportunities of the green power sector. Suggestions: 1) focus on China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) , Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) dominated by scenery and clean energy; 2) China Resources Power, Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) actively transforming the development of new energy.
Risk warning: policy implementation is not as expected; The project progress is not as expected; The public data used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update; Measure the deviation risk.
