Live pigs: sows can be bred further, and the investment in the live pig sector is at the right time
Investment suggestion: for the pig sector, it is still in a very good configuration window period. The first half of the year is the key period to win excess returns. The fertile sows have been falling continuously since July 2021, among which they have fallen more than expected from October to November 2021. The downward trend of fertile sows is very clear. From historical experience, fertile sows have been in a downward relay, In the follow-up, with the intensification of breeding losses and the continuous downturn of column supplement, the de urbanization will be intensified. The decline of fertile sows every month will be catalyzed by the pig sector. The pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of the pig price is very limited. Factors such as the change of the marketing rhythm of short-term farmers will affect the fluctuation of the pig price. Even if there is a periodic rebound, as long as the loss inventory is cleared, it will continue. In the second half of the year, it is necessary to verify the pig price, but it is a safe period for the first half of the year. Despite the recent rebound in the pig sector, the current valuation of the sector, especially the leader, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety. Therefore, at present, the pig sector continues to be recommended, focusing on the leading Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , followed by the second tier pig enterprises New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) .
Poultry: yellow chicken prices rebounded and fundamentals continued to be optimistic
Investment suggestion: for yellow chicken, benefiting from the improvement of seasonal demand, chicken prices around the country rebounded before the Spring Festival, especially in major sales areas such as East China. The fundamentals of the yellow chicken industry have maintained an upward trend after continuous capacity removal. The short-term fundamentals will change with the change of demand, and the medium-term fundamentals will continue to improve under the capacity contraction. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity, the industry concentration is further improved. We continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of Huangji sector. We recommend Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) .
Dynamic insurance: focus on the growing dynamic insurance leader
Investment suggestions: the reform of the breeding industry has promoted the transformation of the competition pattern of the animal protection industry, accelerated the trend of large-scale breeding, normalized the prevention and control of non plague conditions, significantly increased the industry access threshold of the new GMP certificate, accelerated the industry reform of feed end prohibition and breeding end restriction, and the trend of large-scale breeding enterprises gathering into large-scale animal protection enterprises is becoming more and more obvious; The competition of animal protection enterprises has entered the stage of seedling drug linkage and collaborative promotion of efficient breeding services from the era of single product competition. We are optimistic about Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) with undervalued value and high growth target. We suggest paying attention to Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) , Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) .
The Ministry of Agriculture released the action plan of “increasing wheat harvest and reducing insect prices”
Investment suggestion: the prices of wheat and corn remain high, and the demand for seeds remains high. The revision of the seed law has long been conducive to the improvement of industry concentration and the market share of leading companies. The commercialization of medium – and long-term genetically modified seeds will continue. Be optimistic about Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) and pay attention to Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) .
Feed: international soybean prices have risen, while Chinese soybean meal prices have increased significantly
Investment suggestion: it is expected that the overall production and sales of feed will continue to grow in the first half of 2022. The rising prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal slightly squeeze the gross profit margin of feed processing, but the leading enterprises have a strong ability to transfer costs to downstream breeding plants, and the market share is expected to increase. It is suggested to focus on Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) and Hefeng animal husbandry.
Pets: be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet tracks
Investment suggestion: we believe that the fundamentals of China’s pet industry are still in rapid development. Although the epidemic has led to a decline in the growth rate of China’s pet consumption, we are still optimistic about the development prospect of the pet consumption market in the post epidemic era; With the declining Engel coefficient of pet consumption and the rising trend of pet consumption upgrading, the proportion of consumption in pet diagnosis and treatment, pet supplies, pet nutrition and health care, pet services and other fields is expected to continue to rise in the future. Compared with other market segments, pet food and pet medicine have natural advantages. We are optimistic about pet food targets Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) and pet health care and medical related targets Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) .
Industry rating and investment strategy: the pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of pig price is very limited. The sector, especially the leading valuation, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety; The fundamentals of Huangji industry have maintained an upward trend after continuous capacity removal. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized capacity, the industry concentration has further improved, and the investment opportunities of Huangji sector have been continuously optimistic; In terms of seed industry, the revision of Seed Law and the promotion of transgenic commercialization will promote the improvement of industry concentration and the expansion of market space, and continue to be optimistic about the growth of leading enterprises; In terms of feed, the recovery of pig production capacity will continue to support the feed sales in the first half of the year, and pay attention to the price of feed raw materials in the second half of the year; In terms of dynamic insurance, it is in the period of industry reform. With the improvement of industry concentration, the advantages of leading enterprises will be gradually clear; Be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet track. Give the industry a rating of “recommended”.
Risk tips focus on the risk that the company’s performance is lower than expected, the risk of sharp market fluctuation caused by emergencies, the risk of epidemic disease in the breeding industry, the risk of policy uncertainty, the risk of price fluctuation, the risk of extreme weather, etc.
