Industry views and key recommendations
In the last week before the Spring Festival, affected by risk appetite, the computer index fell by 9.6%. We believe that in essence, the market has weak confidence in the annual performance growth of computers.
Meanwhile, in the last week before the Spring Festival, the annual report forecast was intensively disclosed. At the current time point, the subsequent interpretation of the market is highly controversial. We see more hope from it. Three details deserve attention:
1. In terms of commonness, Xinchuang, especially financial Xinchuang, has become the business keywords of many companies: financial IT manufacturers such as Changliang, zenith, Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) , basic software manufacturers such as Beijing Baolande Software Corporation(688058) , Puyuan, and network security manufacturers such as Topsec Technologies Group Inc(002212) , Lvmeng, etc. all mentioned the positive impact of Xinchuang on future business in the annual report forecast or relevant announcements. As stated in our report “computers at the end of the 21st century, semiconductors at the end of the 18th century”, industry information innovation is expected to become the core main line of the sector in the next three years.
2. From the perspective of commonality, many companies mentioned the impact of social security factors on the cost side of 21 years: Venustech Group Inc(002439) , Zhongfu Information Inc(300659) and other companies mentioned the base impact of 20-year social security preference on the year-on-year profit of 21 years in the annual report forecast. It is estimated that both accounted for about 10% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20 years. As we all know, in 2021, especially in the first half of the year, the per capita salary in the IT industry showed a phased and rapid upward trend. Considering the elimination of base factors and antitrust policies, it is expected that the pressure on the cost side in 22 years is expected to be significantly relieved.
3. From the perspective of personality, for the inflection point companies previously expected, “bad” landed: in our previous report, we mentioned that “financial it generally increased revenue without increasing profit in 21 years, and is expected to usher in a” scissors gap “in revenue and profit in 22 years” (see the report “deduction of computer annual market” on January 16 for details). The forecast of the annual report disclosed that the performance of Changliang and Yuxin was flat as expected, “bad” landed. Under the resonance of supply and demand, we judge that the inflection point of financial IT performance in Q1 in 22 years is a high probability event.
To sum up, for those who are still pessimistic about computers, we should re-examine the logic of the sector. The same sentence is “computers at the end of the 21st century are like semiconductors at the end of the 18th century”, and “financial it, the winner and loser of computer investment throughout the year”. Investment opportunities mainly include two aspects:
At present, it is suggested to focus on the main line of financial it, underestimate value + performance inflection point + industrial acceleration, and reiterate that bank it > OA > basic software.
Pay attention to the wrong killing opportunities of high-quality white horses in cloud computing, such as Kingdee and Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) . In the long run, pay attention to the industrial information innovation under the upgrading of financial information innovation, especially the investment opportunities of industrial software.
Focus on the target:
White horse mainly recommends Kingdee International, Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Shanghai Weaver Network Co.Ltd(603039) , Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , China Greatwall Technology Group Co.Ltd(000066) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) ;
Dark horse highlights Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) , Fujian Apex Software Co.Ltd(603383) , Beijing Seeyon Internet Software Corp(688369) , Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) ;
It is suggested to pay attention to Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) , China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) , Qingcloud Technologies Corp(688316) , Tansun Technology Co.Ltd(300872) , Primeton Information Technologies Inc(688118) , Digital China Information Service Company Ltd(000555) , Beijing Baolande Software Corporation(688058) , etc.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is depressed, major changes have taken place in sector policies and major changes have taken place in the international environment.
