Key investment points
As a typical cyclical industry, the price fluctuation of agriculture represents the prosperity of the industry. Most of the time, the decline in prices is interpreted as a decline in the prosperity of the industry and a negative share price. However, sometimes, the price decline represents an investment opportunity. After the Spring Festival, the traditional consumption of agricultural and sideline products is off-season, and the probability of price decline is large, but some are seasonal, some are at the bottom, and some are the turning point of the cycle.
At the current time point, what industries will the fund focus on or are “falling prices”?
The inflection point of the cycle can only be confirmed by falling prices: pigs ( Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , COFCO jiajiakang, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) );
Long term bottom consolidation, missed the dividend of commodities from 2020 to now, and the price decline accelerated the elimination of production capacity: sugar ( Nanning Sugar Industry Co.Ltd(000911) , Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) ), rubber ( China Hainan Rubber Industry Group Co.Ltd(601118) );
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the processing industry relies on the decline of raw material prices to improve its performance: vegetable oil ( Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) etc.).
Risk tips: extreme weather affects crop planting and growth, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the implementation of agricultural policies does not meet expectations, and the data is not updated in time.
