The sales volume of major automobile enterprises in the Chinese market exceeded expectations. The sales volume in January was optimistic, and 450000 vehicles could be seen. In 2022, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car market has made a good start again. The sales volume of seven car enterprises, Weilai, ideal, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Zero run, gac-e’an and Byd Company Limited(002594) in January totaled 162900, a year-on-year increase of 227% and a slight decrease of 4% month on month.
(1) compared with the sales volume in January 2021 in the same period, the sales volume of seven major brands in January 2021 decreased by 16% month on month, and the monthly sales volume of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles decreased by 28%. In January 2022, the sales volume of the seven major brands decreased only 4% month on month, and the demand continued to be strong, exceeding previous expectations, with strong market toughness.
(2) comparing the monthly sales data of the fourth quarter of 2021: the sales volume of the seven major brands in January 2022 was 162800, which was close to the sales volume in November 2021 and higher than the average sales volume in Q4 2021. On the whole, it continued the high base level at the end of 2021.
We believe that the sales rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in January is about 450000, and we are optimistic about the rebound opportunity of new energy vehicles.
The sales volume trend of the major eight countries in Europe is in line with the characteristics of seasonal fluctuations, and the month on month decline is narrower than that in the same period in 2021. The European market has always been characterized by seasonal fluctuations in the impulse at the end of the quarter and the decline at the beginning of the quarter. Therefore, the month on month decline in sales in January 2022 is the expected trend. The major eight countries in Europe sold a total of 120800 new energy vehicles in January 2022, with a year-on-year increase of + 31% and a month on month increase of – 49%. In contrast, the magnitude of the month on month decline is narrower and more resilient than the – 62% in January 2021.
The sales volume of the US market in January was in line with expectations, and the penetration rate continued to rise by 6.2%. In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States was 62400, with a year-on-year increase of + 75% and a month on month increase of – 19%. The monthly sales volume in the United States is relatively stable, fluctuating around 60000-70000 vehicles. In terms of penetration rate, the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) new cars in January was 6.2%, an increase of 2pcts compared with 4.2% in 2021.
Investment suggestion: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is strong. After early adjustment, the valuation of lithium battery sector has fallen back to the reasonable allocation range. It is recommended to recommend battery leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) with obvious advantages in the integration of negative link, Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) with excellent profitability of positive link, high growth positive dark horse Byd Company Limited(002594) iron lithium supplier Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) and Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) scarce targets in the field of power exchange.
Risk warning: the downstream demand of new energy vehicles is less than expected; Risk of shortage of raw material supply upstream of lithium battery industry chain; Risks of policy changes in various countries.
