Spring Festival travel data and review of overseas market during the Spring Festival holiday
1) travel data of Spring Festival transportation: in the 20 days before the Spring Festival transportation, it is expected to send a total of about 485 million passengers nationwide, with a year-on-year increase of + 45% in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of – 61% in 20 years and a year-on-year decrease of – 66% in 19 years; Among them, civil aviation is expected to send a total of about 16.65 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of + 55% in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of – 50% in 20 years and a year-on-year decrease of – 53% in 19 years.
2) according to the Xinhuanetco.Ltd(603888) report, the statistics of the Ministry of culture, culture and tourism show that in the three days before the Spring Festival holiday, China’s tourism trips totaled 137 million, which recovered to 71.5% of the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019 according to a comparable standard; China’s tourism revenue reached 167.849 billion yuan.
3) US stock market performance: from January 28 to February 4, in terms of aviation stocks, American Airlines, United Airlines and Delta Airlines rose by 5.2%, 4.7% and 4.1% respectively; In terms of hotel stocks, Huazhu group, intercontinental hotels and Marriott International rose 9.3%, 3.0% and 2.1% respectively.
4) Hong Kong stock market performance: from January 28 to February 4, aviation stocks generally rose, with Air China H, China Southern Airlines h, Cathay Pacific Airlines and China Eastern Airlines h rising by 4.5%, 3.9%, 2.5% and 2.0% respectively.
5) rise in oil price: on February 4, 2022, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was 92.31 US dollars / barrel, an increase of 22.74% over the end of 2021; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 64.17%.
6) devaluation of RMB: on January 28, 2022, the central parity rate of US dollar against RMB was 6.3746, which was 0.017% lower than that at the end of 2021.
Covid-19 epidemic situation and epidemic prevention policy tracking: Recently, many overseas countries have relaxed epidemic prevention policies
1. Many countries relaxed epidemic prevention policies: 1) entry: Thailand, the Philippines and other countries restarted the entry quarantine free plan in February; 2) China: many European countries have relaxed China’s epidemic prevention policies since early February, such as lifting assembly restrictions.
2. Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from January 29 to February 4, China reported 199 local confirmed cases (180 last week), mainly in Zhejiang Province (Hangzhou), Tianjin, Beijing, Guangdong Province (Shenzhen, Huizhou, Meizhou, Heyuan and Yunfu), Hebei Province (Hengshui) Henan Province (Anyang City, Sanmenxia City, Ruzhou city), Heilongjiang Province (Mudanjiang City), Yunnan Province (Xishuangbanna); As of 15:00 on February 5, 2022, China has 63 medium and high-risk areas, including 7 high-risk areas (Beijing 4, Tianjin 2 and Zhejiang 1) and 56 medium risk areas (Beijing 6, Tianjin 4, Hebei 2, Heilongjiang 21, Shanghai 1, Zhejiang 12, Henan 1, Guangdong 3, Yunnan 1 and Xinjiang 5). 2) Global: from January 29 to February 4, there were about 20.54 million newly confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia, a month on month increase of – 12%; The number of deaths increased by 71971, a month on month increase of + 13%. 3) United States: from January 29 to February 4, about 2.23 million new cases were diagnosed, down 42% month on month; A total of 18869 deaths were added, an increase of 5% month on month. 4) UK: about 1.36 million new cases were diagnosed from January 29 to February 4, an increase of 113% month on month; A total of 2679 deaths were added, an increase of 46% month on month.
3. Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: as of February 24, China has reported about 3 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine. About 1.25 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from January 29 to February 4, with a month on month decrease of 74%. 2) Global: as of February 4, about 10.2 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and 61% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: civil aviation passenger volume + 55% year-on-year in the 20 days before the Spring Festival Transportation
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from January 31 to February 4, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 6894, down 54.3% year-on-year in 2019 and 37.9% month on month last week.
2) aviation department: from January 31 to February 4, according to the data of flight standard, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 515, 1056, 979, 376, 224 and 127 respectively, with the average of – 43.9%, – 37.6%, – 41.0%, – 24.3%, – 26.7% and – 18.4% respectively.
3) Airport: from January 31 to February 4, according to the data of flight standards, the average daily take-off and landing sorties of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) were 269, 187, 137, 317 and 257 respectively, with a month on week ratio of – 31.3%, – 32.9%, – 47.8%, – 37.0% and – 26.8% respectively.
Tax exemption: the tax exemption discount on outlying islands was basically the same month on month
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from January 29 to February 4, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 399 and 451 respectively, an increase of 0.1% and a decrease of 8% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou Airport (expected) was 52619, down 16.0% month on month.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail weakened month on month, and the tax-free discount intensity of China free outlying islands, China development control overseas travel investment and China export service outlying islands were basically the same month on month.
Opening of high-end tea brands
By the end of January 2022, there were 850 and 874 stores in the business of Naixue tea and Xi tea respectively; In January, Naixue’s tea stores and Xicha stores increased by 52 and 37 respectively.
Investment advice
1) recommended Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China’s transport capacity accounts for a large proportion, and its performance is the first to recover. Before the opening of the door, its profit performance is more stable and has high long-term growth. Intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : with obvious scale advantages, obvious improvement in management and accelerated overseas recovery, it is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommendation Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
6) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of duty-free shops on outlying islands in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
