As of January 28, 2022, a number of power generation enterprises have issued performance forecasts, of which 23 thermal power enterprises have suffered varying degrees of losses in the fourth quarter of 2021; 18 companies suffered losses in the fourth quarter and the whole year, and 5 companies suffered losses in the fourth quarter and still made profits in the whole year. According to the announcements of various companies, the main reason for the pre loss of 2021q4 performance is the sharp rise in coal prices, resulting in a significant increase in fuel costs. The continuous rise of coal prices and the poor transmission of costs to the user side are the main reasons for the loss of thermal power in 2021q4. From September to November 2021, the average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal increased sharply by 143% year-on-year to 1471 yuan / ton. The contradiction between "market coal" and "planned electricity" is prominent, and the upside down of coal and electricity is serious in the fourth quarter.
In terms of amount, 2021q4 Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) has the largest loss of RMB 10.583-12.483 billion, Datang International Power Generation Co.Ltd(601991) is followed by RMB 9.013-10.813 billion, and the third and fourth places are Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) (RMB 6.123-6.923 billion) and Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) (RMB 3.465-4.165 billion) respectively. In addition, Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co.Ltd(600023) , Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) and other large-scale local power enterprises also suffered large losses. According to the observation of 11 enterprises that have announced their power generation or sales, the degree of loss is basically consistent with the power generation; 2021q4 kwh power loss is distributed between 0.03-0.20 yuan / kWh.
What do you think of the follow-up?
1. The profit of thermal power is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. The price mechanism of the coal long-term association was adjusted, and the adjustment was continuously increased to ensure the supply of coal. The signing scope of medium and long-term coal contracts will be expanded in 2022. In principle, all coal production enterprises with an approved capacity of 300000 tons or more will be included in the signing scope of the long-term coal agreement in 2022; Power generation and heating enterprises sign long-term agreements for 100% of the coal they use except imported coal. The setting of the price ceiling and the signing proportion of 100% long-term cooperative coal will help the coal supply of power generation enterprises stabilize and the cost tends to stabilize. The reform of electricity marketization continued to deepen, and the floating range of electricity price was expanded to 20%. The annual long-term electricity price of each province increased significantly. For example, the average price of Jiangsu long-term electricity price in 2022 was 466.69 yuan / megakwh, 19.4% higher than the benchmark price of coal and electricity. The average price of Guangdong long-term association in 2022 was 497.04 yuan / trillion kwh, an increase of 9.3% over the benchmark.
2. Thermal power + new energy transformation to help improve the fundamentals of enterprises. Under the double carbon background, the transformation of new energy of traditional thermal power enterprises accelerated. In 2021, Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) wind power and photovoltaic power sales were 19.867 billion kWh and 3.408 billion kwh respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 46.8% and 46.9%. Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) the sales of wind power and photovoltaic power were 31.936 billion kWh and 1.192 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 57.8% and 63.2%. The growth of wind power photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to bring sustainable growth to the company.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, under the coal supply guarantee policy and the market-oriented reform of coal price, the profit of thermal power is expected to hit the bottom and rebound; In the medium and long term, thermal power, as the basic sector and indispensable flexible resource of power system, is expected to gradually show its value in the new power system. To sum up, maintain the "recommended" rating of the industry. In terms of individual stocks, it is suggested to pay attention to the thermal power subject matter Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Resources Power, Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated(600098) , Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) that is expected to improve profits; {6005}, Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co.Ltd(600595) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) of high-quality Longdian power, Founder Technology Group Co.Ltd(600601) of Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co.Ltd(600595) of Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) of {6009}; The target of nuclear power operation leader China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ; Distributed photovoltaic field Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Ganghua gas, Skyworth Group, Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) , Hangzhou Star Shuaier Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002860) .
Risk tip: focus on the risk that the company's performance improvement is not as expected, the continuous rise of coal price, the decline of electricity price, the demand for electricity is not as expected, and the risk of policy change.
