The total box office of films in the Spring Festival fell compared with the same period last year, and the sharp increase in ticket prices is the main reason. According to the data of cat eye professional edition, the total box office excluding service fees of the Spring Festival in 2022 (from February 1 to February 6, i.e. from the first day to the sixth day of the first month) reached 5.51 billion yuan, down 22.9% compared with the Spring Festival in 2021. In 2022, the total number of film viewers reached 114 million, down 28.1% from 159 million in 2021 and 12.4% from the same period in 2019; In terms of cities, the box office of the first tier cities fell the most. The box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 was 681 million yuan, down 29.0% year-on-year from 2021. Regardless of the extreme situation of the epidemic in 2020, the box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 fell for the first time in nearly five years. According to the data of cat's eye professional edition, the average ticket price of the film gradually increased from 35.8 yuan in 2017 to 48.5 yuan in 2022, an increase of 7.9% compared with 44.9 yuan in 2021. By city, ticket prices in first tier and fifth tier cities increased significantly, 9.6% and 10.1% respectively. The sharp increase in ticket prices may be the most important factor affecting the number of film viewers.
Channel side: the concentration of the film investment industry decreased as a whole, but the share of Wanda city and ticket prices increased. In 2022, the concentration of cinemas CR3, Cr5 and CR10 in the Spring Festival were 21.5%, 25.7% and 33.5% respectively, down 0.1pct, 0.5pct and 0.5pct respectively compared with 2021. Among the top ten film investment companies, only Wanda, Xingyi, Omnijoi Media Corporation(300528) and bona studios increased their market share by 1.5pct, 0.4pct, 0.2pct and 0.1pct. It is worth noting that the ticket price of Wanda film investment 2022 Spring Festival is 56 yuan, which is 13.9% higher than that in 2021, and the price increase is higher than that in the whole country. However, its market share of film viewers was 12.4%, still increased by 0.6pct compared with last year. It is the company with a large increase in the market share of film viewers in the top ten films, reflecting its strong operation ability and relatively high audience stickiness.
Production side: the overall quality of the film is high. The box office of "shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake" and "the killer is not too calm" are leading. Among the eight films launched in the Spring Festival, the top 4 at the box office were "shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake", "the killer is not too calm", "miracle stupid child" and "bear haunts and returns to the earth". As of the early morning of February 5, the box office had reached 23.9/12.8/6.2/540 million yuan. Judging from the Douban score, 3 of the 8 films in the 2022 Spring Festival file have more than 7 points, and the overall quality is equivalent to that in 2021. "Shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake" and "this killer is not too calm" are leading at the box office. They pay attention to bona film and Xinli media (100% controlled by Yuewen group). Cat's eye entertainment has increased investment in production in recent years, and the film "the killer is not too calm" produced during the Spring Festival has become a dark horse. Cat's eye mainly produced "calm and calm" for the first time in 2020. The box office of "Hello Li Huanying" produced by the company in the Spring Festival in 2021 reached 5.4 billion yuan. The box office of "this killer is not too calm" produced in the Spring Festival in 2022 reached 1.3 billion yuan as of the early morning of February 5. The high success rate of the project is an effective verification of the success of the company's business expansion upstream.
Investment suggestion: due to the rapid rise of ticket prices, the overall box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 is lower than that in 2021, but it is basically the same as that in 2019. The quality of films in the film market has been continuously improved, and the overall investment rate of the company has been improved. In terms of investment targets, focus on Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) (002739. SZ, "buy" rating), cat eye entertainment (1896. HK, "buy" rating), and it is recommended to focus on Hengdian Entertainment Co.Ltd(603103) , China Film Co.Ltd(600977) , Shanghai Film Co.Ltd(601595) .
Risk tip: online entertainment is impacted, the release time of the film is less than expected, and the box office of the film is less than expected.
