Event: Kerry released the sales data of top 100 real estate enterprises in January 2022.
In January, the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises were poor, down 40.69% from the same period last year. According to the sales list of the top 100 real estate enterprises in January 2022 released by Kerui, the full caliber sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises in January was 584.9 billion yuan, down - 40.69% from the same period last year and - 95.37% from the average level in 2021. This month, the real estate market continued the cooling trend since the second half of last year, with poor overall performance, dismal market sales and sharp decline in demand. It is mainly caused by the following two factors: 1) near the Spring Festival, most real estate enterprises slow down the supply rhythm; 2) The downward pressure on the market has intensified, and buyers' wait-and-see mood has increased, resulting in insufficient effective demand. To a certain extent, affected by the Spring Festival factors and the short natural days in February, we expect that the real estate market in February is still not optimistic. When it is imperative to ensure completion and delivery, sales will face great pressure in the future, and transactions may continue to decline.
In January, the sales of all echelons of real estate enterprises deteriorated, and large and small enterprises decreased significantly. In January 2022, the sales thresholds of all echelons of real estate enterprises decreased significantly. The sales thresholds of top 3, 10, 20, 50 and 100 real estate enterprises were 28.3 billion yuan, 11.6 billion yuan, 8.4 billion yuan, 3.6 billion yuan and 1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year figures of - 49.1%, - 42.2%, - 38.4%, - 42.8% and - 51.2% respectively. In terms of monthly sales amount, the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in January decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, especially top1-3 and top51-100. In January 2022, the monthly sales of top1-3, top4-10, top11-20, top21-50 and top51-100 real estate enterprises were 1113, 1121, 961, 1684 and 97.1 billion yuan, respectively - 40.2%, - 43.5%, - 39.7%, - 38.3% and - 42.8% year-on-year, and - 22.9%, + 7.4%, + 4.4%, + 14.5% and + 8.5% year-on-year.
In the head, the short-term sales of real estate enterprises decreased, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement remained unchanged. In terms of real estate enterprises, the top three in sales are country garden, Vanke and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) . The full caliber sales in January were 49.45 billion yuan, 33.5 billion yuan and 28.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year sales of - 11.09%, - 52.28% and - 32.62% respectively, compared with the same period of 20 years + 6.32%, - 40.95% and + 56.09%. Rongchuang China's sales in January were slightly inferior, with a sales amount of 27.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 20.57%, ranking fourth. Among the leading real estate enterprises, country garden, Greentown China and rongchuang China decreased moderately, with sales of - 11.09%, - 20.52% and - 20.57% respectively year-on-year. Among the top 20 real estate enterprises, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) and Renheng land achieved contrarian growth, with sales growth rates of 7.14%, 1.79% and 13.21% respectively. We believe that although the leading real estate enterprises are greatly affected by the market environment in the short term, with the clearing of risk events, the gradual relaxation of national policies, the continuous restoration of the credit of real estate enterprises, and the long-term fundamentals remain unchanged, the resources in the market will be more inclined to high-quality real estate enterprises with good operation and management ability in the future.
Investment suggestion: in the short-term dimension, the warmer policy promotes the improvement of valuation. At present, it is in the combination of "bottom of fundamentals" + "bottom of policy". The fundamentals are still on the way of accelerating the downward trend. The prosperity is the worst in history. There is still room for policy game. We think the first quarter of this year is the best window period for allocation. In the medium and long term, under the expectation of increased concentration and stable profits, the "three good real estate enterprises" with excellent management, smooth financing and diversified development will enjoy a higher valuation premium. We suggest paying attention to the leading stocks in the high-quality housing development industry: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (00000 2), Poly Real Estate (600048), Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383), China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (001979), Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (601155), Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) (000656); It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality property management companies: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) (001914), Country Garden Service (6098. HK), China Resources Vientiane life (1209. HK), Xuhui Yongsheng service (1995. HK), Jinke service (9666. HK), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (002968).
Risk warning: the risk that the fermentation of risk events exceeds expectations and the improvement of financing environment is not as expected.
