Last week's market
In the five trading days before the festival, the CSI 300 fell 4.51%, and the SW auto sector fell 6.06%, underperforming the market by 1.55 percentage points. Among them, the passenger car sector fell 7.90%; The commercial bus sector fell 5.38%; The commercial truck sector fell 4.87%; The auto parts sector fell 5.24%; The auto service sector fell 3.31%.
In terms of individual stocks, the top gainers are Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Wuxi Lihu Corporation Linmited(300694) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , Sichuan Chuanhuan Technology Co.Ltd(300547) , Shenzhen Roadrover Technology Co.Ltd(002813) ; The largest declines were Guizhou Guihang Automotive Components Co.Ltd(600523) , Zhejiang Jingu Company Limited(002488) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Nbtm New Materials Group Co.Ltd(600114) .
Industry news
1) two departments: support the unified layout of new energy vehicle charging and replacement infrastructure construction and operation in Shenzhen; 2) The maximum subsidy is 10 million yuan, and Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province has issued several policies and measures to support the development of new energy vehicles; 3) Tesla financial report: the net profit of 2021q4gaap was USD 2.321 billion, with a month on month increase of 759.63% / 43.45%; 4) Mercedes Benz cooperates with Huineng technology to develop the solid-state battery of the next generation of electric vehicles; 5) Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi will form an alliance and invest 23 billion euros to develop electric vehicles in the next five years.
Company news
1) Byd Company Limited(002594) in January, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 92900, with a month on month increase of 367.65% / 0.11%; 2) The sales volume of new forces of car making in January was brilliant, and weixiaoli increased by 33.59% / 114.83% / 128.07% respectively year-on-year; 3) Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) performance forecast: the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 940 ~ 1070 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90.84% ~ 117.23%; 4) Foryou Corporation(002906) performance forecast: the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 280 ~ 300 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54.66% ~ 65.70%; 5) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) performance forecast: the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 14 ~ 16.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 150.75% ~ 195.52%.
Industry strategy and individual stock recommendation this week
According to the weekly data of the Federation of passenger cars, in the third week of January, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars increased by 28% / 13% month on month, and the wholesale sales volume changed by + 22% / - 6% (up 31% month on month). On the whole, the retail end performed strongly before the festival. Although the wholesale end declined month on month due to the impulse of the main engine factory at the end of last year, the sales volume increased week by week. We insist that, With the support of replenishment and demand replenishment, the recovery trend of the industry is expected to continue in the future. At the same time, the demand for stable growth in China is becoming more and more obvious. Under the strategic requirements of expanding domestic demand, automobile consumption is expected to become an important driving point, and the necessity of stabilizing automobile consumption is increasing. In terms of new energy vehicles, the data of January Byd Company Limited(002594) and new forces of vehicle manufacturing are still strong. In the future, with the help of the successive launch of new models and the continuous improvement of chip supply, we are not pessimistic about the sales forecast of this year; Meanwhile, if the tax credit policy of up to US $12500 for electric vehicles and bicycles in the United States is subsequently passed in the Senate, it will significantly boost the sales expectation of electric vehicles in the United States. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the latest progress of the event and the sales trend of electric vehicles in the United States. To sum up, we are optimistic about: 1) China's entry into and binding with Tesla, Volkswagen and other international automobile enterprises, as well as companies with new car manufacturing forces and strong independent brand supply chain, such as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) (603305), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (002050), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) (002126), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (603348); 2) Enterprises that enter the supply chain of leading battery manufacturers at home and abroad, such as Panasonic, lgenergysolution, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and ferdi battery, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812). In addition, we are optimistic about independent car companies that continuously improve their technology and stand out in the fierce competition, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594), Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) (600066).
In terms of smart cars, the current cooperation between technology giants and car enterprises continues to advance. In the future, China's smart electric vehicle market will present a diversified competition pattern. With the subsequent significant increase in the supply of smart cars in China (a number of smart new models are expected to appear at this year's Beijing auto show), the industrial development will accelerate, It is suggested to focus on two main lines: 1) thematic opportunities in Huawei's automobile industry chain, such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238) and Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) (600733); 2) The demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors will continue to increase, and the penetration rate of intelligent lights / intelligent cockpit / air suspension will continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (002920), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (601799), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (603786), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) (603197), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689).
Risk warning: policy fluctuation risk; Risk of chip shortage; The global covid-19 pneumonia epidemic control was less than expected; The electric transformation of Chinese and international car enterprises is less than expected; The promotion of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles was lower than expected.
