Event: on January 26, lamresearch, a leading US stock equipment company, released the financial report of fy2022q2 (corresponding to the quarter from October to December of 2021). The company achieved a revenue of US $4.227 billion in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 22.29%; The adjusted net profit was US $1.207 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.27%.
The income of overseas equipment leaders is lower than expected, and the performance of China's equipment leaders is higher than expected, which is due to the supply side rather than the demand side. Fanlin group's fy2022q2 revenue was $4.227 billion, a record high, but lower than Bloomberg's consensus expectation of $4.415 billion. Applied materials (Amat), which is also the global equipment leader, fy2021q4 (corresponding to the quarter from August to October 2021 of natural year), achieved a revenue of US $6.123 billion, lower than the US $6.351 billion unanimously expected by Bloomberg.
The lower than expected revenue growth of global leading equipment manufacturers is due to the upstream supply side rather than the downstream demand side. For example, Fanlin stated at the fy2022q2 performance meeting that the company saw strong demand growth, but the spread of covidomicron affected freight and logistics, exacerbated the shortage of labor, delayed the delivery of key parts suppliers, limited the growth of the company's revenue, and the deferred revenue increased significantly to $1.46 billion.
In contrast, in China, the impact of the epidemic is weak, and many equipment companies have issued more than expected performance forecasts. The median value of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) 21 annual revenue forecast was 9.7 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations; Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) it is estimated that the revenue in the 21st year will be 3.108 billion yuan, and the newly signed orders will be 4.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90.5%; The median value of Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) 21 annual revenue forecast was 825 million yuan, exceeding market expectations, reflecting the continued strong demand in the downstream.
The capital development support of the wafer factory is expected to continue, and the demand boom is expected to continue.
Affected by the supply side, the capital expenditure plan of major overseas wafer factories has been delayed. Due to the delayed delivery of equipment, UMC's capital expenditure in 21 years is deferred to 22 years, and the capital expenditure in 22 years is expected to reach 3 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 67%. Similarly, STM's 21-year capital expenditure was US $1.8 billion, a decrease of US $200 million compared with the company's guidelines at the beginning of the year, and is expected to reach US $3.4-3.6 billion in 22 years, with a year-on-year increase of 86-97%. Deferred capital expenditure will bring more demand increment to the equipment market in 22 years. In addition, major wafer factories around the world have shown their enthusiasm to expand production. TSMC expects the capital expenditure to be 40-44 billion US dollars in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 33-46%. Two new overseas production lines, 5nm in the United States and 22-28nm in Japan, will be completed and put into operation in 2024. In the mainland, SMIC Shenzhen started construction in December of the 21st year, with a total investment of 2.38 billion yuan. SMIC announced the commencement in January of the 22nd year, with a total investment of 8.87 billion yuan. The demand for upstream equipment is expected to remain strong, and 2023-2024 will still be the peak of intensive landing of new production lines.
Investment suggestion: the deferred income of overseas equipment leaders and the deferred capital expenditure plan of downstream Fabs reflect the shortage of supply side in 21 years, rather than the weakening of demand side. The semiconductor equipment industry is expected to benefit from the continuous high growth of downstream demand. It is suggested to pay attention to Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , shengmei Shanghai, Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) .
Risk tip: the downstream demand of the semiconductor industry is less than expected, the expansion progress of the wafer factory is less than expected, and the progress of equipment R & D is less than expected.
