Market performance:
The Shanghai Composite Index fell – 4.6% this week to close at 3361.44 points; Gem refers to – 4.1% this week, closing at 2908.95 points; CSI 300 – 4.5% this week, closing at 4563.77 points. The real estate sector was – 4.2%, ranking 10th among 31 industries.
New house transaction: the transaction area was – 29.6% year-on-year and + 5.5% month on month
This week (1.21-1.27), the total transaction area of first-hand houses in 32 cities we focus on tracking is about 3.11 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 29.6% and a month on month increase of + 5.5%. Among them, the total transaction area of first-hand houses in the first tier (4 cities) was 940000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 41.6% and a month on month increase of + 46.5%; The total transaction area of first-hand houses in the second tier (14 cities) was 1.41 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.0% and a month on month increase of – 11.9%; The total turnover of first-hand houses in the third tier (14 cities) was 760000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 43.8% and a month on month increase of + 7.7%.
Second hand housing transaction: the transaction area was – 78.6% year-on-year and – 49.7% month on month
This week (1.21-1.27), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities we focused on tracking was about 420000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 78.6% and a month-on-month increase of – 49.7%. Among them, the total transaction area of second-hand houses in the first tier (2 cities) was 310000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 53.2% and a month on month increase of – 6.1%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the second tier (8 cities) was 40000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 95.7% and a month on month increase of – 89.7%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the third tier (7 cities) was 70000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 83.5% and a month on month increase of – 49.2%.
Inventory of new houses: the inventory area was + 4.6% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 11.3 months
As of January 27, 2022, this week, the total inventory area of new houses in 16 cities we focused on tracking was about 94.75 million m3, a month on month increase of + 4.6%, and the overall decontamination cycle (by area) was about November 3. Among them, the inventory of new houses in the first tier (4 cities) totaled 30.1 million m3, a month on month increase of + 1.36%, and the decontamination cycle was 8.5 months; The inventory of new houses in the second tier (6 cities) was 33.19 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 0.44%, and the decontamination cycle was 9.4 months; The inventory of new houses in the third tier (6 cities) was 31.46 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 14.09%, and the decontamination cycle was 23.7 months.
Land market: the land transaction area of Baicheng is 10.61 million m3, the total land transaction price is 9.8 billion yuan, and the land premium rate is 0.16%
Last week (1.17-1.23), the number of land supply in Baicheng was 105, and the corresponding land supply construction area was about 5.09 million m3; The number of land transactions in Baicheng is 150, with the corresponding land construction area of about 10.61 million square meters, the total price of land transactions is about 9.8 billion yuan, and the land premium rate of Baicheng is 0.16%. Among them, 1.9 million cubic meters, 4.56 million cubic meters and 4.15 million cubic meters of land were sold and built in the first, second and third tier cities respectively, with year-on-year rates of – 13%, – 59% and – 79% respectively, and the corresponding land premium rates were + 0.00%, + 0.00% and + 0.30% respectively
Investment suggestions:
This week, Kerry released the top 100 sales list of Chinese real estate enterprises in January 2022. In January 2022, the full caliber sales amount of the top 100 was – 40.7% year-on-year, and the equity sales amount was – 42.2% year-on-year. The reason for the large year-on-year decline between the single month equity caliber and the full caliber in January is: I) high base effect: the full caliber amount of the top 100 in January 21 reached 986.3 billion yuan, and the full caliber amount in 2022 changed by + 1.4% and – 11.5% respectively compared with 2020 and 2019. II) demand side: at the beginning of the 22nd year, the market weakened due to the change of the general environment in the second half of the 21st year, and the demand transformation slowed down due to the aggravation of buyers’ wait-and-see mood. III) supply side: due to the influence of centralized land supply in core cities, the rhythm of real estate enterprises’ goods promotion was disrupted, and the repeated covid-19 epidemic resulted in the weakening of supply in early 22. Following the “three red lines”, the introduction of policies such as “concentration management of real estate loans”, “two concentration of land supply” and “pilot reform of real estate tax” will restrict supply and demand in both directions. The regulation of wind direction has not changed, and “stability first” is still the main tone, and the space for large-scale expansion is narrow. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. In the future, the low base effect subsided, the fundamentals were under pressure in early 2022, and the supply and demand of the industry were limited, which aggravated the disharmony between land acquisition, sales and leverage reduction. Suggestions: (1) steady development type: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) ;
(2) growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; (3) High quality objects of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc.
Risk tips:
The real estate regulation policy has become stricter, the sales repair is less than expected, and the capital has been greatly tightened.
