In late January, the company successively released performance forecasts, which are divided into sub sectors:
(1) the net profit of cross-border e-commerce companies fell sharply. We analyzed that it was mainly affected by the sharp rise in freight and the title of Amazon. (2) High end women's wear: Xin Hee Co.Ltd(003016) performance was lower than expected, but still achieved the equity incentive goal. (3) In casual wear, excluding the impact of stripping kidiliz, SEMA's performance recovered to 90% in 2019, Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) due to the lower than expected performance of the same store and the rigidity of expenses. (4) Outdoor equipment performed better than clothing, of which Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) performed better than peers, but the performance was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to increased discounts, increased brand consulting fees, increased investment due to overseas production expansion, and provision for partial inventory impairment at the end of the year. (5) The OEM sector performed better than the garment sector, among which the cotton textile company performed well and Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) performance exceeded expectations.
At the current time point, we mainly recommend Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) , Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) , Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) :
(1) Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) : the performance in 21 years exceeded expectations. In the medium and short term, on the one hand, 200000 ingots are expected to be put into production in 22 / 23 years respectively; On the other hand, the company's low-cost cotton inventory in Vietnam is expected to last until the first half of 22 years. In the long run, we put more emphasis on the company's non cyclical growth logic, that is, the improvement of bargaining power brought by the increase of the company's share. In addition, focus on the company's growth with the expansion of Shenzhou, the largest customer.
(2) for the target of high view track, Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) : 1) there are sufficient export orders and it is expected to grow steadily in the future; 2) Domestic business benefited from the policy of superposition and double reduction of epidemic situation, driving the hot demand for camping. In the medium and long term, the proportion of domestic sales revenue is expected to exceed half in the future, and the superimposed net interest rate will be improved to 15% +.
(3) Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) with high-end track positioning and extension expansion space: 1) the main brand has increased its efforts to open stores in the central region by creating sports suits and broadening application scenarios, maintaining a growth rate of more than 15% and higher than that of the industry; 2) Hazys: on the basis of high efficiency, the brand still has extension shop space; In addition, the brand still has the logic of expanding categories such as shoes, bags and golf series, which is expected to maintain an increase of more than 25% in the future; 3) BAONIAO is expected to maintain an increase of more than 10%, and usher in the improvement of net interest rate with the production of Hefei factory; 4) Small brands zhonglefeiye and kemiche are expected to maintain an increase of more than 35% and gradually contribute to profits.
Market review: outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.22pct
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.57%, the gem index fell 4.14%, and the SW textile and garment sector fell 3.35%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.22pct and the gem index by 0.79pct. Among them, SW textile manufacturing fell 6.25%, and SW clothing and home textile fell 2.03%. At present, the textile industry is sw.86 and the textile industry is pe.14. This week, home textiles performed best, with a decrease of 0.93%; Men's wear performed the worst, down 6.84%.
Market data tracking: China's cotton price index rose 0.36%
As of January 28, China's cotton 328 index was 22727 yuan / ton, up 0.36% this week, and China's imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 21570 yuan / ton, down 1.32%. Overall, the price difference between internal and external cotton is 1157 yuan / ton.
According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in December 2021, the export amount of clothing and clothing accessories was US $15.927 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. In the first 12 months, the cumulative export amount of clothing and clothing accessories was 170.263 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.0%. In December 2021, the export value of textile yarn, fabrics and products was US $14.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%; In the first 12 months, the cumulative export amount of textile yarn, fabrics and products was US $145.203 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%.
Industry news
Nike opened a store in partnership with an agent in the Chinese market for the first time; Amazon will launch physical clothing stores; Levi's: sales in 21 years returned to pre epidemic levels.
Risk tips
Second outbreak of the epidemic; Fluctuation risk of raw materials; Systemic risk.
