Event overview:
In January 2022, the delivery volume of new forces was released. According to the data disclosed by various companies: 9652 Weilai vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 33.6% and a month on month increase of - 8.0%; 12922 Xiaopeng vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 114.8% and a month on month increase of - 19.2%; Ideal 12268 vehicles, year-on-year + 128.1%, month on month - 12.9%; 3530 krypton vehicles, with a month on month ratio of - 7.0%; 16031 ea'an vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 117.9% and a month on month increase of - 3.9%.
Analysis and judgment:
The delivery made a good start and laid the tone of the whole year with a high base
The delivery of new forces made a good start, with a significant year-on-year increase. Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal, the top three of the new forces, will deliver about 10000 vehicles in January 2022; In terms of other new forces, Nezha paid 11009 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 401.6%; Zero run delivery reached 8085 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 434.0%. Ea'an delivered 16031 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 117.9%; Extremely krypton delivered 3530 vehicles, with a total sales volume of 9537 vehicles after only 100 days on the market.
The off-season is not light, and the high base in January laid the tone of high growth throughout the year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the impulse of manufacturers in December, January is the off-season of new energy sales and the low point of annual sales. In addition, affected by the lack of core, the vehicle collection cycle has been lengthened, and the popular models are difficult to meet the requirements of consumers' annual premise vehicles. We judge that the real demand in January is higher, and it is expected to be released gradually after the Spring Festival. A number of new cars will be delivered this year to accelerate the layout of mass production. In addition to the continuous hot sales of existing models, the response of newly listed models is good. Xiaopeng P5 continued to climb after its scale delivery was started in October 2021. The sales volume reached 4029 in January this year, and exceeded 4000 in two consecutive months. This year, all of the top three new forces have heavy-duty models in mass production: including et7 and et5 cars, Weilai will deliver three new models this year to enter the volume market; Xiaopeng G9 is expected to be delivered in the second half of the year, positioning medium and large SUVs and making efforts to improve the brand; The ideal X01 continues to increase the program route, and the body size is larger than the ideal one. It is expected to be delivered in the second half of this year.
Product strength continues to break through the sales center of the second tier
The product power of other new forces continues to break through, driving the sales center upward. The delivery volume of Nezha automobile in January has exceeded that of Weilai, reaching 11009; Nezha's and Zero run's main small electric vehicles performed better in January, with a month on month ratio of + 8.7% and + 3.6% respectively. Geely's high-end intelligent electric brand jikrypton's first model 001 reached 3530 in the third full delivery month, with a cumulative sales volume of 9537 in only 100 days.
New energy of traditional automobile enterprises: latecomers accelerate the catch-up and continue to narrow the gap with new forces in the head. According to the disclosed data: gac-ea delivered 16031 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 117.9% and a month on month increase of - 3.9%.
Electrification enters from 1 to N, and intelligence starts the competition in the second half
In 2021, the delivery volume of the top three new forces exceeded 90000 vehicles and doubled. In January 2022, the performance was still strong and took the lead in the first half competition dominated by electrification. Many new cars will be delivered this year and enter the development stage from 1 to N:
1) Weilai et7 is expected to be delivered in March this year, with a starting price of 448000 yuan, and is oriented to the high-end pure electric car market. Et5 is expected to be delivered in September. The starting price before the subsidy under the battery rental scheme is 258000 yuan. While carrying the power of Weilai luxury brand, it accelerates the driving of walking volume. Both vehicles are at the leading level of the same level in terms of intelligent configuration.
2) Xiaopeng flagship SUV Xiaopeng G9 will be delivered in the second half of this year, with a positioning higher than P7, which will fill the vacancy of medium and large SUV products of the brand. Equipped with gtxp4, the configuration is upgraded to intelligent again The first mass production vehicle with 0 function.
3) the ideal X01 is positioned as a full-size SUV, and the body size is larger than the ideal one. The power system built with the second generation extended range platform focuses on ultra long endurance. Compared with the ideal one, X01 is further upgraded in terms of scientific and technological configuration.
Differentiation has become the new focus of competition among automobile enterprises, and the intellectualization of new forces continues to advance: 1) intelligent driving, self-developed L4 automatic driving technology, and mass production of lidar front loading have almost become the "standard" of new models. At the same time, Weilai and Xiaopeng are also one of the first car companies to implement the software charging model, building another profit growth point; 2) Intelligent cockpit, self-developed customized operating system, build the bottom ecology, and one core and multiple screens help the hardware interaction and cooperation. Xiao Peng and ideal have successively completed the dual listing of Hong Kong stocks, and Weilai is expected to return to Hong Kong for listing. A new round of capital injection will help start the second phase of car building.
Electric acceleration + Intelligent start reshaping the Centennial industrial pattern
The global new energy vehicle industry as a whole presents the dual characteristics of "electric acceleration + Intelligent opening". The trillion market has been opened, the traditional car enterprises have actively transformed, and the new forces of car manufacturing and technology Internet enterprises (Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, Dajiang, etc.) have accelerated their entry to promote the prosperity and development of the industry.
(1) vehicle level: in the process of rapid capacity expansion of the industry, the new power brands represented by Weilai make full use of Internet thinking and select tracks to break through. Although Baidu, Xiaomi and other new entrants launch their models late, the complete industrial chain is expected to build a late development advantage at that time, and their own brands will usher in historic opportunities;
(2) parts level: with the development of electric intelligence and the reshaping of the whole zero relationship, there is a wide space for domestic substitution of independent parts suppliers. Some parts enterprises with strong technology R & D capability are expected to rise to the leading of global subdivided industries through globalization based on the Chinese market. At the same time, the entry of Huawei, Dajiang and other technology enterprises will also accelerate the reconstruction of the industry pattern, and the serious imbalance between the status of China's vehicle industry and the status of parts industry is expected to be alleviated.
Investment suggestions:
The transformation of electric intelligence promotes the great change of vehicle business model, and the scientific and technological attributes and consumption attributes will become more prominent, driving the reconstruction of valuation and benefiting the target [Xiaopeng automobile h and ideal automobile H]. Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order and firmly looks at multiple parts. The qualitative change at the supply side of new forces and traditional car enterprises continued to advance. In the first half, the trend of electrification has been determined. In the second half, intelligent competition has opened, intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit have accelerated together, and electric intelligence has reshaped the industrial order. Rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened. The accelerated growth of sales volume drives the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. It is recommended to recommend [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ] with greater flexibility, and the beneficiary objects [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of intelligent electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises are increasing the intelligent electric configuration, hoping to achieve the brand upward: preferred acoustics - [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], wire controlled chassis - [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], domain controller - [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ], ceiling glass - [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], integrated die casting - [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], intelligent seats - [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], interior decoration - [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ] Platform type -[ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ]. Double carbon pressure superimposes the driving force of electric vehicle weight reduction on endurance improvement. There is a wide space for vehicle lightweight. It is recommended to [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], and the beneficiary targets are [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ].
Risk tips
The sales volume of new models is lower than expected; The failure to strictly implement laws and regulations such as points and carbon emissions has led to the launch progress of new energy and new models of automobile enterprises not reaching the expectation; The impact of chip shortage.
