The medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) installed capacity has increased rapidly, and the cost reduction + efficiency increase is expected to contribute to sustainable development
The medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) installed capacity has increased rapidly. By the end of 2021, China’s installed capacity of wind power is about 330 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%; Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) the installed capacity of power generation was about 310 million KW, with a year-on-year increase of 20.9%. In recent years, the price of fan has decreased significantly, from 7000 yuan in 2003 to 3750 yuan in 2020. The increase of tower height can increase the wind speed and drive the increase of power generation. In 2021, the average initial contract price of all inclusive wind power operation and maintenance services decreased to US $15500 / MW per year, a year-on-year decrease of 11%.
Longyuan Power: take the double carbon east wind, and the world’s first wind power operator “a + H” will set sail again
① Longyuan Power is the leader of wind power operation industry
Longyuan Power began to lay out wind power business in 1999. As of December 2021, the company’s total holding installed capacity was 26.5gw. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company’s total operating revenue reached 26.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.09%. The national energy group clearly regards Longyuan Power as the wind power business integration platform of the national energy group, gradually injects the wind power business assets controlled by the group into Longyuan Power, and will comprehensively use various ways to make the existing thermal power business no longer be included in the consolidation scope of Longyuan Power.
② the installed capacity of the company is expected to accelerate its growth, and its operation efficiency is better than that of its peers
By December 2021, the installed capacity of Longyuan electric power wind electric control unit was 23.57gw, an increase of 5.7% over the end of 2020. 23gw of new reserve projects were added in the first half of 2021; At the same time, the company has successfully signed five photovoltaic County wide promotion projects with local county governments in Zhejiang, Guangxi, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. The average utilization hours of wind power in the first half of 2021 was 1297 hours, an increase of 110 hours year-on-year.
③ the stock subsidy pressure is reduced, and the parity items bring incremental cash flow
The state actively promotes the project of affordable on grid electricity price. At present, the power generation income of stock projects of new energy operators accounts for a large proportion of national subsidies. The balance of accounts receivable and notes receivable of the company increased at a relatively high rate from 2016 to 2020, maintained at more than 20%, and the pressure of arrears of new energy subsidies continued to increase. The company can optimize its asset structure and improve cash flow pressure by issuing ABS and ABN with subsidies as basic assets, or selling stock power stations.
④ the company has advantages in wind power generation, and its capital control is superior to its peers
In 2020, the gross profit margin of the company’s wind power business was 48.70%, and the average on grid electricity price was 487 yuan / MWh. The scale of interest bearing liabilities of the company’s unit installed capacity is 3.67 yuan / watt, the capital cost rate is 3.53%, and the financial expense rate is 10.75%, which is at a lower level among comparable companies and has good capital control ability.
Risk tips: the risk of sharp macroeconomic downturn, the risk of electricity price reduction, the risk that the implementation of policies is not as expected, the risk of too fierce industry competition, the risk of continuous arrears of subsidies, the risk that the company’s development projects do not meet expectations, etc
