Focus this week: Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.Ltd(603338) , Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811)
Core view of this week: since the beginning of the year, the pressure for steady growth has increased, and the intensity of infrastructure investment is expected to increase. We believe that relatively weak public utilities construction is expected to become a hot spot for investment, including "double carbon" related nuclear energy, hydrogen energy, water network and smart water construction, oil and gas pipeline network construction, which will bring equipment investment demand.
Theme of this week: future development space of excavator
Aging replaces urbanization and has become the main driving factor for the growth of excavator sales in Europe and America. 1) before 2000, the rate of urbanization in the United States has been in a period of rapid growth. After the Internet bubble burst in 2000, the growth rate of urbanization in the United States began to slow down, replacing the rapid increase in the proportion of elderly population. Although the sales volume of excavator fell into a trough in 2009 under the influence of the slowdown of urbanization rate and the financial crisis, it has entered an upward channel driven by aging as a whole. 2) After the European Union's financial crisis, the growth rate of sales has slowed down year by year, especially since the European Union entered the second channel, which has accelerated since the financial crisis in 1965.
Exports are the main driver of Japan's sales growth. Unlike Europe and the United States, Japan's urbanization rate at the beginning of the 20th century has surpassed that of Europe and the United States, and the space for further improvement is very limited. In addition, although Japan's population aged 65 and over accounted for 28% in 2020, its aging problem has been very serious, but the growth rate of its elderly population has shown signs of slowing down in recent years. It can be said that urbanization and aging are important factors driving the growth of China's excavator sales, but they are not enough to drive the significant growth of sales this year. From its excavator sales structure, exports account for more than 60%, which is the main driving factor driving the growth of excavator sales in Japan.
There is still huge room for growth in the sales of excavators in China. According to our calculation, in 2020, the per capita ownership of excavators in China will be about 15.3 sets / 10000 people and the per capita sales volume will be 2.1 sets / 10000 people, which is significantly lower than that in developed countries and regions such as Europe, America and Japan. Therefore, there is still huge room for growth in the future. In terms of driving factors, from an endogenous perspective, China's urbanization rate still maintains a high-speed growth trend, and the proportion of the elderly population is also in a rapid rising stage. In the long run, urbanization and manpower substitution still demand excavators. From an exogenous perspective, in recent years, the technology and quality of domestic brands have been continuously improved, the price has more advantages than European and American brands, and the overseas competitiveness has been continuously improved. In addition, domestic brands have entered regions with low per capita excavator ownership such as Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America. China's Excavator export potential is huge in the future. On the whole, considering the decline of excavator sales and the service life of excavators from 2012 to 2015, it is expected that the renewal demand brought by the stock market will gradually weaken during 2022-2025, the new demand will maintain a relatively stable growth, and overseas demand will become the main driving force for the growth of excavator sales in the next few years. According to our calculation, it is expected that the sales volume of excavators will maintain a high-speed growth from 2022 to 2025, with annual growth rates of - 4.7%, 3.2%, 3.7% and 13.3% respectively, corresponding to the sales volume of 327000 excavators, 337000 excavators, 349000 excavators and 396000 excavators respectively. It is estimated that by 2025, the export volume of excavators will reach 192000 units, accounting for 48.5% of the sales volume. In terms of market scale, based on 320000 yuan per excavator, the corresponding excavator market space from 2022 to 2025 is about 451.1 billion yuan.
Electric excavator has become the general trend. In terms of performance, compared with the traditional excavator, the electric excavator can achieve zero pollution and zero emission, and the noise is greatly reduced. It is in line with the national environmental protection strategy, and the output power and tonnage are also increasing. It is not inferior to the traditional excavator in bucket capacity, maximum excavation radius, depth and height. From the perspective of economy, although the current price of electric excavator is higher than that of hydraulic excavator, from the perspective of the whole life cycle, the economy of pure electric excavator is better than that of fuel type excavator. In terms of energy consumption, the 20 ton electric medium excavation can save about 130000 yuan in fuel every year, and the cost can be recovered in about three years. Due to greater fuel consumption, its electric products can save 300000 yuan of fuel cost every year. According to our calculation, the sales volume of electric excavators will be 101000-182000 units from 2022 to 2025, corresponding to a market space of 74.3-133.2 billion yuan.
Risk tips: economic fluctuation risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, supply chain security risk, raw material price rise risk
