Core summary
Core view of the industry: focus on steady growth and optimistic about the valuation and repair of the sector. According to the performance express disclosed before the Spring Festival, under the downward pressure of the economy in the fourth quarter of 21, the fundamentals of most listed banks remained stable, the revenue growth rate increased steadily, the asset quality was generally stable, the asset negative ends expanded steadily, and the profit growth rate maintained high growth. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2022, the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy is expected to support the fundamentals of banks. At present, the static valuation level of the sector is only 0.64x, which is still at an absolute low in history and has a sufficient margin of safety. We are still optimistic about the valuation repair opportunities of the sector under the excessively pessimistic expectation of the economy and the quality of bank assets. Recommendations for individual stocks: 1) banks represented by China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) that give consideration to asset quality performance and wealth management ability; 2) The high-quality regional banks represented by Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) have significantly improved their fundamental margin and better growth than their peers.
Industry hot spot tracking: 4q21 fund ownership data was released, and the third-party share increased significantly. On January 28, 2022, the Fund Industry Association published the list of the top 100 public funds held by 21q4 fund selling agencies on a commission basis. The scale of non commodity basic guarantee held by 21q4 banks / securities companies / third-party channels accounted for 52.8% / 12.2% / 35.0% (vs54.2% / 13.2% / 32.6%, 21q3) respectively, and the scale of stock + hybrid funds accounted for 58.6% / 14.5% / 26.9% (vs59.1% / 15.3% / 25.6%, 21q3) respectively, It can be seen that only the market share of third-party channels has increased, while banks and securities companies have decreased. Individually, the head effect of the channel is significant. The market share of top3, including China Merchants Bank, ant and Tiantian fund, has increased steadily. Among them, the scale of 21q4 stock + hybrid products of Tiantian fund reached 537.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11% month on month, surpassing that of ICBC. It is worth noting that 2B type institutions performed well, and the non cargo management scale of Jiyu and Huicheng 21q4 increased by 42.3% / 70.0% month on month respectively.
Review of market trend: in January, the banking sector rose 2.47%, outperforming the market performance by 10.1 percentage points, ranking first in 30 sectors according to the first-class industry of CITIC. In terms of individual stocks, bank stocks rose and fell in January, among which Chengdu, Jiangsu and Changshu rose the most, rising 16.8% / 12.9% / 11.6% respectively in a single month, while Zijin, Qingdao and Ping An fell the most, falling 5.7% / 4.8% / 3.9% respectively in a single month.
Macro and liquidity tracking: 1) the manufacturing PMI in January was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry decreased slightly. Among them, the PMI of large / medium / small enterprises were 51.6% / 50.5% / 46.0% respectively, with a month on month increase of + 0.3% / – 0.8% / – 0.5%. The operation pressure of small enterprises is still great. 2) In January, the one-year MLF interest rate was reduced by 10bp to 2.85%, and the lpr1 one-year / five-year period decreased by 10bp / 5bp respectively compared with the previous month. With the implementation of the interest rate cut, the overall market interest rate fell, and the yield of 1 / 10-year Treasury bonds decreased by 29.1/7.6bp to 1.95% / 3.70% respectively compared with the previous month. 3) The credit data in December 2021 was less than expected. The new RMB loans in a single month were 1.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 123.4 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and the stock growth rate was 11.6%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month, falling for five consecutive months.
Risk tips: 1) macroeconomic downturn leads to higher pressure on industry asset quality than expected; 2) The strength of financial supervision increased more than expected; 3) The escalation of Sino US friction has led to an increase in external risks.
