Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) );
Titanium dioxide ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), carbon fiber ( Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ), spandex and polyurethane ( Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) ), food
Additives ( Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ), zeolite / OLED ( Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) ), pesticides ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) )
Compound fertilizer ( Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ), etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. Recommend excellent private refining enterprises ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ) to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter large-scale refining and layout C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking; Follow Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
In the past two weeks, the price index of chemical products rose, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas rose, LNG gas fell and coal price rose; The prices of C1, C4, aromatics and polyurethane products increased. In recent two weeks, China’s chemical price index CCPI + 1.1%; The price of core raw materials is oil distribution + 6.1%, imported LPG + 7.0%, domestic LNG – 17.8%, bituminous coal + 14.8%.
At the raw material end, the prices of C1, C4 and aromatics increased; On the product side, the prices of some polyurethane products rose, while the prices of some chemical fertilizers, pesticides and fluorochemicals fell.
The rise in oil prices in the past two weeks, the uncertainty caused by extreme climate and geopolitical tensions triggered the rise in oil prices.
In the past two weeks, the settlement price of oil distribution rose from 87.9 to 93.3 US dollars / barrel (up 6.1%), and the settlement price of American oil rose from 85.1 to 92.3 US dollars / barrel (up 8.4%); The US commercial crude oil inventory is 415 million barrels (compared with two weeks ago + 0.3%), and the number of US crude oil wells is 497 (compared with two weeks ago + 1.2%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, in the near future, it is difficult to make major changes in the output of OPEC +, the United States and Iran, but the geopolitical tension caused by the Ukrainian problem continues. In addition, according to Xinhua news agency, residents and commercial enterprises in Tennessee, Arkansas and Texas are powered off due to freezing rain and snow caused by winter storms, Sudden cold weather triggered a rise in oil prices. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, many overseas countries have stated that the negative impact brought by Omicron is limited, which is difficult to hinder the demand recovery process, and the demand prospect is still optimistic. In addition, the problem of tight supply and strong price of natural gas in Europe continues, which is also a potential support for the demand for crude oil in winter. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the market believes that the Fed’s interest rate hike may be earlier than expected, but it is difficult to land in February. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, the positive support brought by the Ukrainian issue is the most obvious. The game and struggle behind the United States and Russia continue. It is expected that the tension will be difficult to ease temporarily, which is a positive support for oil prices.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase in the past two weeks are trichloroethylene + 31%, butadiene + 13%, styrene + 8%, MTBE + 7%, sulfuric acid + 6%, phthalic anhydride + 5%, PTA + 5%, TDI + 5%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are imidacloprid-10%, enoxate-9%, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid-8%, hydrogen peroxide-7%, dimethyl carbonate dmc-7%, tetrachloroethylene-6% and dichloromethane-6%.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon is the same, trichlorosilane is the same, soda ash (light + 2%, heavy + 2%), vinyl acetate + 2%, EVA (photovoltaic grade) is equal.
Chemical products related to lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid is the same, lithium carbonate (industrial grade + 2%, battery grade + 2%), iron phosphate is the same, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) is the same, and lithium hexafluorophosphate is the same.
There is no clear conclusion on the issue of export tax rebate, the market supply is tight, and the price of trichloroethylene rises.
Trichloroethylene (East China) rose 30.9% to 10176 yuan / ton in the past two weeks. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream refrigerant R134a has less market demand, and there is no clear conclusion on the issue of export tax rebate. Domestic trade has been shut down successively due to the Spring Festival logistics, and the overall shipment has decreased; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the manufacturers of trichloroethylene produced at low load in the early stage, and the market supply is tight. In addition, affected by the air quality in the north, it is still possible to reduce the negative production, forming a favorable supply side.
International oil prices support costs, supplier prices remain high, and butadiene prices rise.
Butadiene (East China) rose 12.7% to 7100 yuan / ton in the past two weeks. On the cost side, the rise of international oil prices forms cost support; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, China’s synthetic rubber market demand is weak and the procurement enthusiasm is general; On the supply side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the supplier price in Shandong market continues to be high, and there is no lack of cover sector to push up the atmosphere in the market, forming a positive atmosphere.
Strong cost support and reduced market supply supported the price of styrene.
Styrene (East China) rose 8.0% to 9075 yuan / ton in the past two weeks. On the cost side, international oil prices and pure benzene rose, forming cost support; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the downstream EPS, PS and ABS of the three main bodies are in the off-season, superimposed with the impact of holidays, epidemic and Winter Olympics, and the demand is weak; On the supply side, according to the continuous shutdown of Baichuan Yingfu, Anhui Haoyuan, Shengyuan and other devices, the restart time is to be determined. On January 24, the 300000 ton device in Xinyang was shut down, and the device of a factory was shut down briefly before the festival. Some manufacturers still have parking plans, and the reduction of market supply formed a favorable supply.
During the peak season of fertilizer preparation in the downstream Spring Festival, the transportation is limited, which forms a strong support, and the price of sulfuric acid rises.
In the past two weeks, sulfuric acid (98%, Yangtze River Delta) rose 5.9% to 900 yuan / ton. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the sulfur price of Chinese refineries remained high, forming cost support; On the demand side, as Baichuan Yingfu is approaching the peak season of fertilizer preparation in spring, there is a positive support for the demand for fertilizer in the downstream, the start-up of calcium hydrogen phosphate is low, and the demand for sulfuric acid is low; On the supply side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the production of enterprises in various regions is normal, which coincides with the Spring Festival holiday. At present, most acid enterprises have significant inventory clearing effect, and there is support on the supply side. In addition, in some areas of Hubei, Henan, Shanxi and other places, the transportation is delayed due to the snow on the road area. In addition, the Winter Olympic Games and Paralympic Games will restrict the passage of transportation vehicles according to the weather conditions, and there is strong price support.
Xylene forms cost support, and the spot market is tight, pushing up the price of phthalic anhydride.
In the past two weeks, phthalic anhydride (East China) rose 5.3% to 8000 yuan / ton. On the cost side, toluene (East China) rose 3.7% to 6425 yuan / ton in the past two Tuesday, forming cost support; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the Spring Festival holiday led to the shutdown of some DOP units in East and South China. It is expected that the resumption of production is mostly after the Spring Festival, and Northern enterprises are still waiting for the production restriction requirements of the later Winter Olympic Games; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, some manufacturers of phthalic anhydride resumed production before the festival, but the load is not high. Some manufacturers are still oversold, the spot is tight, and the new devices have not been put into the market, forming a favorable supply side.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
