Basic conclusion
In the festive atmosphere, the growth of community group buying Gmv accelerated in January. As an important part of the convenience life circle, community e-commerce is optimistic that the head platform will turn to high-quality development. In January 2022, the Gmv of the head community group buying platform totaled about 30 billion, with a year-on-year increase of more than 70%, with double-digit growth month on month, significantly higher than the single digit growth rate in the second half of 2021. The increase was more driven by the increase of unit price. It is speculated that it is related to the release of festival demand and the increase of large goods storage demand. In addition, the increase of monthly orders per user also contributed some thrust to the growth of the synchronous platform. Under the background of stricter antitrust supervision, the head platform has an obvious trend of "de flow" of business positioning, turning to the high-quality development direction of improving the supply chain and running through the UE model, and actively helping the Rural Revitalization and vegetable basket project.
According to the data from the sampling platform, the demand for dairy products, rest food, soft drinks and popular wine increased sharply in January, and the category discounts continued to differentiate. Category discount rates are generally classified as snack foods > family cleanliness > quick-frozen food, hanging noodles / fans, condiments > rice, Baijiu, household paper, soft drinks, small appliances, beer, dairy products > cooking oil. Specific categories: 1) dairy products: in January, the category increased by about 65% in ring and 135% in the same period. The discount rate decreased significantly month on month. The average price of medium and high-end white milk of large sampling products increased more significantly, and the status of the top two continued to be stable. 2) For edible oil, in January, the category increased by about 17% in ring and 300% in the same period. The upstream cost pressure is still on, and the average price of medium and high-end products continues to rise. 3) Soft drinks & Dazhong liquor. In January, beer and soft drinks grew by 37% and 68% month on month respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 350% and 250% respectively. After the collective price increase of beer, the average price of large single products of some brands on the community group purchase platform has increased since November. 4) Condiments: in January, the category increased by about 33% and 55% respectively, and the share advantage of leading brands expanded. The average price of large single products of leading brands began to rise significantly in November, and the month on month growth rate of Gmv rebounded significantly in January after slowing down in November and December, reflecting the gradual implementation of brand price increase, but there are differences among brands. The discount rate of basic condiments has been lower than that of compound adjustment since October. 5) For leisure food, in January, the category increased by about 66% in ring and 27% in the same period. The discount rate was higher than 30% and rebounded month on month. The implementation of brand price increase on the community group purchase platform remains to be seen. 6) Household cleaning, the category increased slightly month on month in January, and the discount rate continued the downward trend. Compared with the brand pattern in the past 21 and 22 years, the proportion of local brands / small brands has decreased from about 30% to about 15%, with a significant decline. The competition has returned to well-known brands. At the same time, the community group purchase channel has become a force channel for domestic brands. 7) Household paper: in January, the ring increase was about 15% and the same increase was about 49%, which was relatively stable. The competition pattern among well-known brands was uncertain, and the average price of some large single products increased.
Investment advice
We believe that the aging population, the convenience needs of lazy people and the impact of the epidemic jointly drive the near-field of daily consumption. Community e-commerce is in line with the concept of "15 minute convenient community life circle" under the common wealth policy. We are still optimistic about the business model and platform shift measures. The platform suggests paying attention to the current leading and more active ways of buying more vegetables, meituan preference and panning vegetables. In terms of consumer goods, according to our three classification logic of safety / challenge / risk, superimposing the release of festival demand, it is suggested that the safety zone should pay attention to Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) in dairy products and Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) in edible oil; The challenge area pays attention to the growth of beer festival demand. After the price increase of condiments is implemented, the profit is expected to release the brand, such as Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) .
Risk tips
The risk of loss expansion of the platform, the risk of policy uncertainty, repeated epidemics, and the deviation between the sampling data and the actual situation
