Event:
According to the cat's eye data, the total box office market revenue of China Film Co.Ltd(600977) during the Spring Festival in 2022 (January 31 - February 6) was 6.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.803 billion yuan compared with 7.842 billion yuan in the same period of 21 years, slightly lower than the market expectation.
Comments:
The epidemic has repeatedly disturbed the market, and the concentration of head films has increased
In terms of fundamentals, the epidemic has repeatedly disturbed the box office, and the average ticket price continues to rise. The total number of tickets issued for the Spring Festival in 22 years was 114 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 28.8% compared with 160 million in the same period in 21 years; The average ticket price is 52.8 yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year compared with 48.8 yuan in the same period of 21 years. The increase of ticket price also has a partial inhibitory effect on the demand for film viewing.
The performance of popular films is differentiated, and the box office concentration of the top 3 has declined. From the perspective of box office performance, the popular films of the Spring Festival in 22 years showed differentiation. During this period, the box office of "shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake", "the killer is not too calm" and "miracle stupid child" were RMB 2.533 billion, 1.391 billion and 669 million respectively. These three films accounted for 75.9% of the box office of the Spring Festival, which was lower than the concentration of 87.1% of the top 3 in the same period of 21 years. With the exception of "shuimen bridge in Changjin Lake" and "this killer is not too calm", the box office revenue of other new year films did not exceed 700 million yuan, indicating that the market's preference for comedy films has decreased, while its preference for theme themes has increased, and there is a certain degree of switching characteristics in the consumption style of the film market.
The performance of downstream cinemas is relatively stable. The box office revenue of the top 10 cinemas in the Spring Festival in 22 years was 3.929 billion yuan, accounting for about 65.06%, a decrease of 0.57% compared with the same period in 21 years; Among them, the market share of Wanda cinema is about 14.42%, an increase of 1.21% compared with the same period of 21 years, and the overall performance is relatively stable.
To sum up, we believe that the performance of the box office of the Spring Festival in 22 years is slightly lower than the market expectation, which is mainly caused by the disturbance of the epidemic situation in some regions, the increase of average ticket prices, and the reputation of some popular films does not meet the expectation. In addition, consumers' preference for film content has also changed. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant films with box office potential in the future. On the whole, the China Film Co.Ltd(600977) market still maintains the general trend of steady development. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies with sustainable competitiveness. We continue to maintain the "optimistic" investment rating of the industry and recommend the relevant leading companies Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) (300251), China Film Co.Ltd(600977) (600977), Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) (002739), Shanghai Film Co.Ltd(601595) (601595).
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downturn; Major policy changes in the industry, epidemic control risks, film supply is less than expected, and the box office of popular films is less than expected.
