Industry core view:
In the past two weeks, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 2.26%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.31 percentage points. From the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in December was + 1.7% year-on-year. Affected by the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic in China, the growth rate was 2.2 PCT lower than that in November. We believe that in the short term, the winter epidemic will counterattack, and the consumer market will face uncertainty. However, with the more accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control and the gradual implementation of the “steady growth” economic policy, China’s consumption is expected to return to a stable growth trend in the future. Suggestions: ① medical beauty: the potential space on the demand side is broad, the supervision on the supply side is stricter, the upstream profitability is strong, and the competition pattern is good. Focus on the investment opportunities brought by the rapid expansion of leading enterprises through technological progress, category expansion, channel sinking and so on; ② Cosmetics: in the face value economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics. Recently, a number of cosmetics related laws and regulations have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics; ③ Gold jewelry: the epidemic situation accelerates industry integration, channel reform and the improvement of multi scene penetration, which is beneficial to the leading enterprises of gold jewelry; ④ Mother and child: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentives. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and child racing track in advance.
Key investment points:
Market review: in the past two weeks (from January 24 to February 6), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.57%, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 2.26%, and the retail trade index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.31 percentage points, ranking third in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 7.65% and the commercial retail index has fallen by 6.50%. The Shenwan commercial retail index has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.15 percentage points, ranking ninth among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: in December 2021, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods were + 1.7% year-on-year, with an average of + 3.1% in two years, 2.2 PCT lower than the growth rate in November 2021. Among the sub categories, the growth rate of retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota fell, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.20% and + 2.50% respectively. ② Raw material price data: in the past two weeks, gold fell $26.69 to $1807.86/oz, and silver fell $1.76 to $22.51/oz. ③ E-commerce data: in December 2021, the turnover of Taoxi platform cosmetics (including beauty and skin care and color makeup) was 17.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 24%, and the turnover of jewelry was 8.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 21%. In terms of beauty makeup, the overall performance of Chinese and foreign brands was low in December, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) youzilai / Caitang, Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) Lianhuo, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) Winona performed better; In terms of jewelry, Gmv of most brands declined in varying degrees, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) and Cartier performed better.
Important announcements of listed companies: advance performance of Ruili Yimei, Aoyuan Beauty Valley Technology Co.Ltd(000615) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , Fujian Green Pine Co.Ltd(300132) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) , Vida international, Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles Co.Ltd(002762) , Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) ; Huahan plastic changed its name; Suning Universal Co.Ltd(000718) issue the shareholding plan; Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) announce the progress of reduction; China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) listing of restricted shares; Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) shareholder reduction; Kidswant Children Products Co.Ltd(301078) executives resigned.
Important events in the industry: ① clinic filing management policy: it is planned to add three types of clinics such as medical and beauty clinics; ② Official reply: cosmetics packaging is prohibited from marking “brand side”, “producer” and “producer”!
Risk factors: the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
