Basic conclusion
During the Spring Festival, we conducted field research on terminals in 5 provinces and cities (Henan, Hebei, Sichuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang), covering channel merchants, tobacco hotels, supermarkets and catering terminals. Under the background of repeated epidemic before the festival, we will deeply explore the dynamic sales of key sub industries and companies during the Spring Festival. The overall conclusions are as follows: 1. Baijiu: Baijiu liquor sales are stable and good, channel price and stock are healthy. The flow of returning home before the festival has recovered significantly. Although large-scale banquets are still strictly controlled, it still drives the recovery of terminal consumption sentiment. The demand for high-end liquor is relatively rigid and less affected by the epidemic disturbance; Under the tide of returning home, the recovery trend of consumption in many places is clear, and the value of local wine allocation is prominent; Although the secondary high-end is affected by the epidemic to a certain extent, 22q1 still has a good start. 2. Popular products: the end demand feedback of beer and dairy products exceeded expectations. Among them, the beer Spring Festival was a small climax of catering consumption, superimposed with the expectation of price increase, and the terminal completed the preparation in advance; The price and age of dairy products were improved, and the increase of net interest rate was supported. The stock and demand of condiments and snack food leaders recovered in line with expectations, and continued to pay attention to the improvement of fundamentals in the follow-up.
Baijiu: the sector can be opened and still can be expected, and the valuation is cost-effective. From the perspective of policy orientation, the new change of this year’s Spring Festival is that the orderly flow of personnel drives the recovery of returning mood. According to the feedback from the channel, the payment collection of wine enterprises is generally more than 30%, and the delivery rhythm basically matches the dynamic sales rhythm of the channel. The improving channel superimposes the control force. 21q4 liquor enterprises generally control the rhythm and digest the inventory. At present, the channel inventory remains benign and the price is stable. On the whole, we believe that the impact of the epidemic on mobile sales during the Spring Festival is controllable, and we suggest paying attention to the replenishment rhythm of channels after the festival. At present, we are still the first to promote high-end targets with high certainty. The partial rigid demand is less affected by the epidemic disturbance, and the valuation has high cost performance; At the same time, it is recommended that the real estate targets benefiting from the return flow exceed the expectation, and the performance is expected to accelerate. Although the secondary high-end is affected by the epidemic to a certain extent, 22q1 still has a good start. It is recommended to pay attention to the elastic target.
Popular goods: pattern improvement + demand recovery, and the marginal recovery of fundamentals continues. In terms of sectors, 1) beer: there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the epidemic disturbance. We should pay attention to the recovery of demand in peak season, price increase transmission and cost improvement. On the demand side, although Q1 is the off-season, the Spring Festival is a small climax of catering consumption, and channels actively replenish inventory to prepare for the peak season. Taking Tsingtao beer as an example, the sales volume in January of 20 / 21 accounted for 10% of the whole year, and the sales volume of Q1 in previous years accounted for about 25%. In addition, the Spring Festival has boosted the home drinking consumption atmosphere, and the epidemic has also boosted the switching of some current drinking demand to non current drinking. 2) Condiments: the inventory situation has improved. With the implementation of price increase in the industry, the decline of raw material prices and catering repair after the epidemic eased, the long-term logic of the head enterprises to improve their own profitability is uncertain. Traditional condiments: the promotion has been strengthened during the Spring Festival, but it is still dominated by large single products and basic categories. Compared with the survey in mid November, the age of classic large single products is significantly shortened by about 20-30 days, the transmission of price increase is smooth, and the dynamic sales situation is stable and good. Compound condiment: we also observed that compared with the survey conducted in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou two months ago, the age of Tianwei increased significantly by 20-50 days, while the age of Yihai basically kept pace with that of big cities, even decreased slightly. 3) Dairy products: the overall stability of the two strong liquid milk, and the distribution of Miaoke normal temperature cheese stick is high. At present, we are still optimistic about the defensive nature of the leading dairy products. Looking forward to 22 years, the trend of improving profit margin is still clear. Top two: the terminal prices of Mengniu Xiaobai milk and Yilian Mushi increased slightly compared with the previous ones. In terms of freshness, Yili performs better than Mengniu as a whole, and the age of large single products is basically within 2 months. Cheese stick: the overall promotion of the head brand is relatively stable, Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) dynamic sales are better than competitive products. From the visit, the distribution of Miaoke normal temperature cheese sticks is good. Miaoke normal temperature cheese sticks are sold in 4 of the 6 cities visited. 4) Snack food: the terminal dynamic sales, price and age of Qiaqia, Ganyuan and Yanjin are relatively stable. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the volume of new products and have high performance elasticity under the low base of 21 years. We believe that “pattern improvement + demand recovery” of Volkswagen products is the core support point of investment logic. The pattern of beer and dairy products is improving, and the feedback of terminal demand is higher than expected, and the leading target continues to be promoted. Seasoning is recommended to keep up with the inventory cycle and the improvement of prosperity brought by the recovery of catering. The deterministic recovery of fundamentals remains to be seen. Leisure food focuses on the performance flexibility brought by category upgrading and large-scale new products.
Risk tips: the risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of intensified industry competition and food safety problems.
