Key points
The total box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 (as of February 5) reached 5.26 billion, which is still a gap from the performance of the Spring Festival in 2021. 1) Affected by the tightening of epidemic prevention and control, the total box office of the Spring Festival decreased by 23.3% compared with the same period in 2021 (up to the fifth day of the Lunar New Year). 2) The number of film viewers and the “price reduction and increase” of ticket prices: the number of film viewers was less than 100 million, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 30%, and the average ticket price increased by 9% to 53.3 yuan; 3) The pattern of “one super and one strong” appears: the main melody series film “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” ranks first at the box office of the Spring Festival with good reputation. As of February 5, 2022, the box office has exceeded 2.2 billion yuan, and the box office of the only comedy film “the killer is not too calm” has exceeded 1.1 billion yuan, becoming the biggest dark horse. In the short term, epidemic prevention and control has become a key variable affecting the recovery of the film and television industry; In the medium and long term, the “14th five year” China Film Co.Ltd(600977) development plan “has anchored the goal of building a cultural power by 2035, and the long-term trend of the film and television industry will not change.
Content: the box office of the Spring Festival shows a trend of differentiation, and the logic of “reputation is king” is further strengthened. 1) The cumulative box office of top 3 films accounted for 76.2% of the overall box office during the Spring Festival holiday, a decrease of 10.9 percentage points compared with the same period in 2021. 2) The film with theme theme was released for the first time in the Spring Festival, which indicates that the theme may become the main tone of the film within the year; 3) The top 2 films at the box office, “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” and “the killer is not too calm”, the average scores of Douban, lighthouse and cat’s eye were 8.8 and 8.4 respectively. According to the “14th five year plan” China Film Co.Ltd(600977) development plan, efforts will be made to launch about 10 high-quality films every year, and the path of high-quality film content will be continued.
Channel side: the number of cinemas and screens has basically recovered, and the market share of Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) has stabilized. 1) According to lighthouse professional edition, by the end of 2021, there were 12275 cinemas and 75287 screens in China Film Co.Ltd(600977) market; 2) The competition pattern of head film investment company is stable: since 2016, Wanda cinema has ranked first in the Spring Festival box office revenue and film viewing people. The “14th five year plan” China Film Co.Ltd(600977) development plan clearly “supports the merger and reorganization of theater companies and significantly improves the industrial concentration”. The concentration of head shadow investment represented by Wanda is expected to increase steadily.
Investment suggestion: recommend high-quality content production companies and leading cinemas. The box office performance of 2022 Spring Festival is lower than expected. With the improvement of the epidemic in the future, it is expected to boost residents’ demand for film viewing. Focusing on the two logics of “high-quality content + increasing the concentration of head shadow investment”: 1) recommend reading group: the “this killer is not too calm” mainly produced by Xinli has a good box office and makes a positive contribution to the income of reading group; Benefiting from the leading effect, Xinli’s operation is getting better and better. The “troika” has rich experience in film and television IP development and operation. 2) Focus on China Film Co.Ltd(600977) : as the producer of many high-profile Spring Festival films, share box office dividends; The subsequent content reserves are rich, which is expected to drive the performance recovery through the continuous output of popular films. 3) Focus on Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) : the business model is highly competitive and the cost side control ability is strengthened; The content investment side participated in the production of “sniper” and other films. 4) Focus on cat’s eye entertainment: continuously improve the participation of head films in the head schedule. 5) Attention Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) : as an important producer of the word-of-mouth film miracle stupid child, share the return on investment.
Risk analysis: the impact of the second recurrence of the epidemic, a new round of restrictions on attendance, changes in film schedule, etc
