Market review: from January 24 to February 4, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.6%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 5.4%, the non bank financial index fell by 4.5%, including the insurance index fell by 5.9%, the brokerage index fell by 3.9%, the diversified financial index fell by 4.6%, and the Hang Seng financial industry index rose by 0.5%. Since the beginning of 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 7.6%, the Shenzhen composite index has fallen by 10.3%, and the non bank financial index has fallen by 6.7%, leading the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.9pct and the Shenzhen Composite Index by 3.6pct. The top five stocks in the sector: * Anxin Trust Co.Ltd(600816) (9.23%), Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (1.53%), Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) (1.15%), Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (- 1.41%), China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) (- 1.82%).
Industry key data tracking: from January 24 to January 28, 2022, the daily average share based trading volume was 975.8 billion yuan, down 58.24% month on month. As of January 27, the balance of margin trading and securities lending was 1743.672 billion yuan, down 2.14% month on month, accounting for 2.52% of the circulating market value of a shares. The trading volume of Liangrong accounts for 6.59% of the trading volume of a shares. As of January 28, 418.4 billion shares were pledged, accounting for 5.63% of the total share capital, an increase of 0.36 PCT over last week; The total amount of market pledge is 3927.9 billion yuan, accounting for 4.25% of the market value of pledge; Equity financing raised 11.1 billion yuan of capital and corporate bonds issued 34.7 billion yuan.
Major news of the industry: ① the CSRC issued the legislative work plan for 2022. (1) Implement the decision and deployment of the central economic work conference on the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system, and formulate regulations such as the measures for the administration of initial public offering registration and the measures for the administration of securities issuance registration of listed companies. (2) Standardize the behavior of market subjects and maintain the steady and healthy development of the capital market. (3) We will continue to implement the new securities law and do a good job in the connection of legal systems. (4) Formulation and revision of other relevant laws and regulations. ② The CBRC issued the guidance on the digital transformation of banking and insurance industry. Main contents: (1) strengthen top-level design and overall planning, scientifically formulate digital transformation strategy and promote the work as a whole. (2) Improve the ability of data governance and application from four aspects: improving the data governance system and enhancing the ability of data management. (3) Strengthen their own scientific and technological capacity-building, increase the flexible supply of data center infrastructure, and improve the application of new technologies and self-control ability.
Next week’s key issues: pay attention to the post holiday stock base trading volume and the marginal improvement of the asset side of insurance stocks.
Securities: before the Spring Festival, some securities companies announced the performance forecast of the annual report for 21 years. The year-on-year growth center of performance was between 30% – 70%, and the performance growth of listed companies was excellent. From the perspective of valuation, the industry valuation is located below the historical quantile center. We believe that after the Spring Festival, the valuation of the securities industry is expected to be further repaired under the influence of hot short-term transactions in the market and the expected catalysis of capital market reform policies. In the past 22 years, the reform of the capital market has accelerated, the reform of the registration system has been comprehensively promoted, and the regulatory requirements have become stricter. It is expected that China’s securitization rate will increase. Suggestions: 1) for the leading securities companies with outstanding comprehensive strength and obvious moat advantages in the securities industry, it is recommended to recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (a + H) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (a + H); 2) Securities companies with differentiated competitiveness in the wealth management segment track recommend China stock market news and pay attention to Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) .
Insurance: it is expected that the “good start” of the insurance industry under the high liability base in 2022 will be under pressure, and may improve after the second quarter. The macro-control on the investment side is mainly “stable”. It is expected that the long-term interest rate will continue to decline with limited space. The valuation and repair process of insurance stocks mainly focuses on the marginal improvement on the asset side. At the investment level, since the beginning of the year, the insurance stocks have performed stably compared with the A-share market. It is recommended to recommend the leading insurance companies with a valuation at the bottom of history and a high dividend rate in the next year. The specific target suggestions are: China’s property insurance with significantly narrowed risk exposure and AIA in the forefront of channel transformation, and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (a + H) and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (a + H) with multi line layout of health and pension industry are recommended for a long time.
Investment suggestion: Insurance: recommend China property insurance, AIA, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (a + H), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (a + H); Securities companies: recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (a + H), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (a + H), China stock market news. It is recommended to pay attention to Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) .
Risk tip: the economic recovery is less than expected; The long-term interest rate was lower than expected.
