Roving prices remain high and stable, and continue to be optimistic about the continuity of the prosperity of the glass fiber industry. The price of glass fiber roving is stable this week, and the industry is willing to support the price as a whole; Inventory continues to be at the bottom of history. The subsequent demand increment focuses on the increase of export, wind power and new energy vehicle penetration. It is expected to be flexible in 22 years and grow in the long term. There is no change in supply planning this week, and there is no change in production line status this week. In the past 22 years, the new supply was relatively limited. At the same time, we should pay attention to the continuous guidance of the association's orderly expansion of new production capacity. We are optimistic about the continuity of the high boom and the weakening of cyclical fluctuations in the glass fiber industry, the limited supply increment, the demand focus, and the improvement of overseas transportation and repair rhythm and wind power demand; At the same time, pay close attention to: 1) the impact of changes in medium and long-term capacity planning of enterprises under the state of high profitability on market expectations; 2) the disturbance caused by the tightening of energy consumption indicators on the landing of new capacity.
The price of electronic yarn / electronic cloth tends to stabilize after adjustment, and the downward probability is further faster or smaller. The prices of electronic yarn and electronic cloth were stable on a weekly basis this week. We believe that the recent price reduction may be due to the impact of changes in the procurement rhythm of downstream factors such as controlling inventory near the end of the year. We continue to be optimistic about the strength of demand support, and the probability of further sharp decline in the future may be small. China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) the production capacity of electronic yarn and electronic thick cloth continued to expand, and the share increased steadily; Grace Fabric Technology Co.Ltd(603256) high end electronic cloth technology has advantages (the first echelon in the world), gradually realize the self supply of high-end electronic yarn, and pay attention to the production rhythm and operation effect of Huangshi gauze project.
The industry cycle attribute may be gradually weakened, focusing on China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . The valuation of the main listed companies in the glass fiber sector is in the historical bottom range (the PE of the main listed traditional glass fiber enterprises in 22 years is about 10x), and the medium and long-term configuration cost performance is good. The subsequent industry cycle attribute is judged as the core divergence of the market, the planning of new supply is limited, the difficulty of obtaining energy consumption indicators is improved, and the demand is growing. The 21-year performance forecast of major enterprises proves the continuation momentum of the high boom of the industry, and we judge it to be sustainable. We suggest to pay attention to the opportunity of valuation reshaping under the weakening of industry cycle, continue to recommend China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) with stable global leading position, firmly promoting cost reduction / scale expansion / high-end product structure, medium and long-term growth, strong strength of glass fiber business, improvement of diaphragm benefits / gradual improvement of voice, medium and long-term growth of leaves, obvious technical advantages, gradual production of Huangshi gauze project Growth inflection point Grace Fabric Technology Co.Ltd(603256) (joint coverage with E-Team). In addition, Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (jointly covered with the chemical team) and Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) which are worth looking forward to growth are also recommended to focus on.
Risk tip: the new production capacity of glass fiber exceeds the expectation, the new production capacity planning exceeds the expectation, and the downstream demand is lower than the expectation (wind power, automobile, electronics, etc.).
