Industry core view:
Last trading week, the electronic index (Shenwan level) fell by 5.27%, 0.76 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. From the perspective of sub industries, the secondary sub industry Costar Group Co.Ltd(002189) optoelectronics decreased the most, with a decrease of 6.78%. Among the tertiary sub industries, the largest decline was in optical components, with a decline of 9.59%. In the industry dynamics of the last trading week, in the photovoltaic electronics sector, the quotation of silicon materials before the festival rose steadily and slightly, and the stable release of new production capacity in February is expected to support the continuous slight increase of output month on month; In the display panel sector, the marginal repair trend of product shipment is gradually rising, and the demand for small size is expected to increase. Investors are advised to pay attention to the important boom tracks in the electronics industry and recommend landscape segmentation fields such as silicon materials and display panels.
Key investment points:
The quotation of silicon materials before the festival remained stable and rose slightly: in terms of the quotation of silicon materials, the price range of China’s single crystal re feeding in the trading week before the Spring Festival was 23000-247000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 241100 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.46%; The price range of single crystal compact is 228000-245000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rises to 238500 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.38%. The overall price remains stable and rises slightly. Driven by the growing market demand for photovoltaic and semiconductors, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises downstream of silicon materials maintained a relatively high level in the first quarter, and the demand for silicon materials procurement continued; Before the Spring Festival, local logistics and transportation were gradually limited, resulting in the reduction of signed orders, which provided support for quotation; Moreover, the rising range of silicon wafer price has covered the cost of silicon material, and the continuous rise of quotation has a relatively high acceptance, which leads to the continuous and stable rising trend of silicon material price. The stable release of new capacity in February is expected to support the continuous slight increase of output month on month.
The marginal repair trend of panel shipment is gradually rising: according to a recent survey by Jibang consulting, the TV shipment decreased by about 3.2% to 210 million units in 2021. In the first half of 2021, the shipment of TV brands continued to sell well driven by American relief funds. At the same time, the replenishment of panel inventory by brand manufacturers also pushed up the panel price; In the second half of the year, with the slowdown of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, the policy dividend in the epidemic period faded, and the demand faced a test. In addition, the rising raw materials and freight costs padded up the cost of the whole machine, and the cost was transferred to the terminal price. The high cost led to the ineffective promotion and the downturn of terminal demand. After the substantial correction of TV panel price in the second half of 2021, the price of small-size panel in particular has been close to the cash cost of panel manufacturers in 2022, which is conducive to brand manufacturers to re increase the proportion of small-size shipments. Deferred demand may promote the growth of TV shipments in 2022.
The industry valuation level is still not high: the PE (TTM) of SW electronics sector is 39.64 times, which is still significantly lower than the peak level of 88.11 times in the 4G construction cycle.
The performance of the electronic sector weakened last week: among the 362 stocks in Shenwan electronic industry last week, 37 rose, 323 fell and 2 remained flat, with an increase ratio of 10.22%.
Risk factors: the risk that technology research and development cannot keep up with expectations; The risk of intensified competition in the same industry; The risk of science and technology friction; The risk of the epidemic spreading again
