Industry core view:
In the past two weeks (from January 24 to February 6), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.57%, the Shenwan social service index fell by 4.28%, and the social service index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.29 percentage points; In the past two weeks, all the main sub sectors of social services closed down: Hotel Catering – 4.11%, tourism and scenic spots – 2.24%, education – 2.95%, professional services – 6.37% and sports – 9.43%. In 2021, the number of tourists in Hainan will basically return to the level before the epidemic, and the tourism development plan of the 14th five year plan will accelerate the entry-exit tourism to usher in an inflection point. With the support of the government’s untapped tax-free policies, the overseas tourism industry is still expected to have a good potential to return in 2022. Affected by the outbreak of the epidemic in many places in China, public travel was blocked. In response to the call of the Spring Festival to celebrate the new year on the spot, the Ministry of culture and tourism estimated that 251 million Chinese tourists traveled throughout the country during the Spring Festival holiday, realizing China’s tourism revenue of 289.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% / 3.9% respectively, and a recovery of 73.9% / 56.3% respectively in the same period in 2019. Tourism, scenic spots and hotel catering are under pressure in the short term. The opening of the Winter Olympic Games as promised will stimulate the ice and snow economy and create new growth points, which is worthy of continuous attention. In addition, ice and snow derivative series such as ice and snow + hot spring are also favored by the public. Education focuses on the norms of after-school training and vocational education, and advocates that heroes should not be judged only by achievements. The Ministry of Education held a symposium and proposed to standardize the management of non disciplinary after-school training and curb malicious price increases. At the same time, relevant notices were issued, proposing to appropriately expand the enrollment scale of secondary and higher vocational education in the fields of preschool education, nursing, housekeeping, pension and so on. It is suggested to pay attention to the education companies that promote the development of educational technology, deeply cultivate the sub track of quality education and vocational education.
1. Tourism: suggestions: 1) benefit from the expected recovery of inbound and outbound tourism and the tax-free leader with complete tax-free licenses; 2) The performance leader benefiting from the recovery of passenger flow and consumption under the normalization of the epidemic; 3) Head travel agencies benefiting from the expected recovery of cross-border travel and diversified layout of tourism consumption scenes; 4) Hotel leader with long-term competitiveness. 2. Education: education focuses on the norms of after-school training and vocational education, and advocates that heroes should not be judged only by achievements. The Ministry of education proposed to standardize the management of non subject after-school training and moderately expand the enrollment scale of secondary and higher vocational colleges in some fields. It is suggested to pay attention to the education companies that promote the development of educational technology, deeply cultivate the sub track of quality education and vocational education.
Key investment points:
In the past two weeks (from January 24 to February 6), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.57%, the Shenwan social service index fell by 4.28%, and the social service index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.29 percentage points, ranking 12th in the rise and fall of Shenwan’s 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 7.65%, and the Shenwan social service index has fallen by 7.12%. The Shenwan social index has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.53 percentage points, ranking 13th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry related news: 1) Tourism: Hainan received 81 million tourists in 2021, basically returning to the level of 2019; Ministry of culture and Tourism: 251 million Chinese tourists will travel during the Spring Festival holiday in 2022; Flying pig Spring Festival ice and snow tourism orders rose by more than 30% year-on-year; Zhejiang, Yunnan and other places announced the suspension of inter provincial tourism activities. 2) Education: the Ministry of Education held a symposium to standardize the management of non disciplinary after-school training and curb malicious price increases; Henan: scale model; Jiangsu is strictly prohibited from rewarding teachers and students based on the results of the college entrance examination.
Important announcements of listed companies: Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) , Huangshan Tourism, Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Xi’An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) , China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) performance forecast; Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) , Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) , Shanghai Xinnanyang Only Education & Technology Co.Ltd(600661) , Beijing Kaiwen Education Technology Co.Ltd(002659) performance forecast.
Risk factors: 1. Risk of natural disasters and safety accidents. 2. Policy risk. 3. Investment, M & A and integration risk.
