Industry core view:
In the past two weeks (from January 24, 2022 to February 6, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.57%, the Shenwan food and beverage index fell by 6.37%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.80 percentage points, ranking 27th among the 31 Tier-1 sub industries of Shenwan. The performance of food and beverage was weaker than that of the market as a whole, and all sub sectors fell. According to the data of China Wine Industry Association, in 2021, the total output, sales revenue and total profit of Enterprises above Designated Size in the national brewing industry increased by 3.95% / 14.35% / 30.86% year-on-year. Among them, beer production and growth rate are leading, and wine production has the largest decline. Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and other high-end liquor enterprises new year capacity expansion plan steadily, is expected to further enhance the concentration of Baijiu industry. In the long run, the demand for high-end and second grade Baijiu is stronger, and the fundamentals of the sector are steady. Suggestions: Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu (1) Baijiu: the high-end liquor is still strong, and the growth of the second high-end liquor is prominent. 2) Beer: the “internal roll” of high-end beer has intensified, and industry giants have arranged the ultra-high-end market to explore the price band of 1000 yuan. The long-term good trend of the sector remains unchanged. 3) Condiment: the impact of price increase is transmitted downward. It is suggested to pay attention to the recovery of demand. 4) Dairy products: the overall prosperity of the industry is upward, and the growth space is broad. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of sector segmentation.
Key investment points:
Baijiu weekly: in the past two weeks, the Baijiu sector fell by 6.28%, of which Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) (-27.20%), Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (-18.89%) and Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) (-15.13%) fell by three. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : in the past two weeks, the wholesale price of Maotai liquor fell slightly. In the past 20 years, the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai liquor was about 3200 yuan, which was at a high level. The price of Feitian bulk bottle remained unchanged at 2810 yuan / bottle. Maotai plans to build phase I construction project of Maotai flavor liquor Xishui tongminba in the 14th five year plan. On January 26, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) announced that the board of directors agreed to invest 4.11 billion yuan to implement the phase I construction project of Maotai flavor liquor Xishui tongminba in the 14th five year plan. After the completion of the project, a series of liquor production capacity of about 12000 tons, koji production capacity of about 29400 tons and liquor storage capacity of about 36000 tons can be formed. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the price of liquor remains unchanged. The price of puwu (eighth generation) is maintained at 965 yuan / bottle, and the price of puwu (seventh generation) is maintained at 960 yuan / bottle. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the group’s revenue is 140 billion. On January 23, Yibin Daily reported that the city’s regional GDP reached 314.808 billion yuan in 2021, breaking the 300 billion yuan mark for the first time. The Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group achieved an operating revenue of 140 billion yuan, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) shares became the first stock with a market value of more than trillion yuan in Shenzhen. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) it is planned to invest 2.75 billion to expand the Qu making workshop. On January 28, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) announced that according to the company’s “14th five year plan” strategic development plan, the company will increase the production capacity of raw wine. In order to meet the demand of production capacity growth, the company will expand and transform the koji making workshop, mainly including koji making workshop and relevant supporting facilities, which will be constructed in two phases. The total investment of the project is estimated to be 2.75 billion yuan. The project investment will be handled in accordance with relevant laws, regulations and systems, and the investment cost will be strictly controlled. The investment amount shall be subject to the project bidding and final settlement. Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ and Guojiao 1573 stop goods. On January 25, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. issued the notice on suspending the receipt of orders for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ series products. The document shows that from now on to March 1, the receipt of orders for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ series products will be suspended. On January 26, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Guojiao Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. issued the
And the notice of suspending the supply of Guojiao 1573 goods. Since the quota of Guojiao 1573 has been implemented in the first quarter of 2022, the company has decided to stop receiving orders from Guojiao 1573 and suspend the supply of goods from Guojiao 1573 from now until March 1, 2022. Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) : Qionglai project is expected to be put into operation in 2023. On January 27th, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) said in response to investors’ questions that the company’s Qionglai project had started construction. The occurrence of covid-19 epidemic has a certain impact on the project. With the support of relevant government departments, all work of Qionglai project is being actively and orderly promoted, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2023. Qionglai base belongs to the production and storage base of the company. After the completion of the project, it is expected to form a production capacity of 20000kl / a raw wine and create more than 500 new jobs. It is estimated that the profit in 2021 will be about 1199.08 million yuan. According to the company’s announcement, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 increased by about 467.75 million yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year increase of about 64%; Compared with the same period of last year, the operating revenue increased by about 1626.15 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 54%; Compared with the same period last year, the sales volume increased by about 3171 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of about 40%. All the sales growth came from medium and high-grade wine. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses in 2021, which will increase by about 49.03 million yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of about 68%. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : the profit in 2021 is expected to be 5.234 billion yuan – 5.542 billion yuan. According to the company’s announcement, the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 was 5.234 billion yuan – 5.542 billion yuan, an increase of 2.155 billion yuan – 2.463 billion yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 70% – 80%. It is estimated that in 2021, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be 5.173 billion yuan – 5.477 billion yuan, an increase of 2.13 billion yuan – 2.434 billion yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 70% – 80%.
Other sectors of food and beverage:
Dairy products: Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) : dingdong buys vegetables and has in-depth cooperation with Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) to promote the upgrading of dairy supply chain. Recently, dingdong shopping and Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) signed an in-depth cooperation agreement in Shanghai. The two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation around the procurement and supply system, supply chain ecological construction and other aspects, so as to bring consumers more dairy products with “product price ratio”. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) : Yili acquired Aoyou shares to complete the delivery. Yili announced on January 28 that its overseas subsidiaries invested and acquired the equity of Aoyou Dairy Co., Ltd. and completed the corresponding equity delivery on January 28, 2022. After the completion of the delivery, Jingang Holdings (Note: Yili subsidiary) holds a total of 620824763 shares of Aoyou dairy, accounting for 34.33% of the issued share capital of Aoyou dairy.
Beer: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) : “old Qingdao” products return. According to the news of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) official wechat on January 23, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) “old Qingdao” products recently landed in major supermarkets in Qingdao to reproduce the old packaging of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 30 years ago. The fonts such as ” Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ” on the packaging are also the original reproduction of the product trademark of that year, and the beer bottles have also restored the 640ml nostalgic capacity of that year.
Risk factors: 1 Policy risk 2 Food safety risk 3 Epidemic risk 4 Risk of economic growth falling short of expectations
