Industry core view:
From January 24 to January 28, the basic chemical industry index fell by 3.41%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 4.51% in the same period, and the basic chemical industry index outperformed the market by 1.10 percentage points in the same period. The petroleum and petrochemical index fell 3.10%, outperforming the market by 1.41 percentage points in the same period. Among them, Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) (32.94%), Guizhou Redstar Developing Co.Ltd(600367) (27.29%), Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) (17.21%), Shanghai Pret Composites Co.Ltd(002324) (15.27%), Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) (13.26%) ranked among the top five; The companies with the top five declines were: Shenzhen Tongyi Industry Co.Ltd(300538) (- 23.87%), Goody Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002694) (- 22.89%), Baotou Tomorrow Technology Co.Ltd(600091) (- 22.50%), Guangxi Hechi Chemical Co.Ltd(000953) (- 22.25%) and Jiangsu Chengxing Phosph-Chemical Co.Ltd(600078) (- 22.13%).
Key investment points:
Trichloroethylene: the price of trichloroethylene jumped sharply before the festival. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, as of January 28, the mainstream price of trichloroethylene in the market was 9659 yuan / ton, up 27.23% week on week. On the supply side, due to the low operating rate of manufacturers in the near future, the tight supply of trichloroethylene in the market, and the proximity of the Winter Olympic Games and the Spring Festival, the manufacturers in some northern regions still have the possibility of reducing the production load, so the manufacturers are willing to support the price obviously. From the demand side, at present, no clear conclusion has been reached on the export tax rebate of downstream refrigerants, and manufacturers are cautious about foreign trade shipments; Domestic trade is approaching the Spring Festival, logistics is shut down, and the overall demand is weak. Under this state, refrigerant manufacturers are more resistant to high priced raw materials. The short-term price rise of trichloroethylene has formed a stable support for the current price of R134a. As of January 28, the mainstream price of R134a market is 23500 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 2.17%. It is expected that trichloroethylene and R134a will maintain the game between supply and demand in the short term, and the price of trichloroethylene may be adjusted horizontally.
Glyphosate: from the week before the Spring Festival to the Spring Festival, China’s glyphosate market maintains stable operation. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, as of February 4, the ex factory price of glyphosate in East China was 76000 yuan / ton. As the supply side approaches the Spring Festival, the start-up of manufacturers has declined slightly, but the overall supply is sufficient. On the demand side, due to the Spring Festival holiday and logistics outage, the market inquiry is cold and the demand is weak. Before the cost end Festival, the glycine inventory increased, the price decreased, and the profit level of glyphosate increased slightly under the condition of low raw materials. In the short term, affected by factors such as replenishment of inventory and loss of cost side support, it is expected that the price of glyphosate will still be reduced and sorted out. It is suggested to pay attention to the dynamics of relevant enterprises.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1 Under the background of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Resource based chemical industry segments that rely on new energy and seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen their business cycle and improve valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are key planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the international crude oil price continues to fluctuate, the epidemic situation in some parts of China repeatedly affects the risk of enterprise operation, and the price of chemicals
