Position analysis: the head enterprises of human services, hotels and leisure scenic spots in the social services sector have increased their holdings to varying degrees. 1) Compared with 2021q3, 2021q4 has improved targets: Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) + 0.59pct, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) + 0.63pct, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) + 2.75pct, Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) + 0.45pct, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) + 2.11pct. 2) The decline targets of 2021q4 compared with 2021q3: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) -2.12pct, Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) -0.42pct, Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) -0.25pct, jiumaojiu -1.91pct, China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) -0.07pct, Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) -2.14pct, Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) -0.04pct, Galaxy Entertainment -0.03pct and Fushouyuan -0.28pct.
Position analysis: supermarkets and department store leaders in the retail sector increased their holdings slightly, and individual stocks in the medical and beauty sector showed differentiation. 2021q4 month on month change: 1) required consumption: Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) + 0.71pct; 2) Optional consumption: department stores Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) – 0.36pct, Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) + 3.69pct, ewushang + 0.48pct; Gold jewelry sector Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) + 0.02pct, Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) -3.46pct; Cultivate diamond sector Henan Huanghe Whirlwind Co.Ltd(600172) -0.02pct, North Industries Group Red Arrow Co.Ltd(000519) -0.31pct; Individual stocks in the medical beauty and beauty sector showed differentiation, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) + 0.22pct, Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) + 5.27pct, Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) + 0.03pct, Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) -1.36pct, Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) -3.78pct, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) -3.44pct; 3) E-commerce sector: Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) -0.00pct, Nanji E-Commerce Co.Ltd(002127) + 0.61pct.
Investment suggestion: at the current time point, we sort out the current investment portfolio from four dimensions: 1) offline consumption portfolio such as catering and Tourism: since the epidemic, small and medium-sized single hotels have been closed and cleared, which is good for the hotel leaders. We recommend chain hotel leaders (Jinjiang + Huazhu + first travel), and we suggest paying attention to Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) ; China’s epidemic control is relatively good. Under the background of the improvement of vaccination rate and the expected availability of foreign specific drugs, we continue to be optimistic that China’s tourism will continue to recover and improve in 2022. We recommend leisure scenic spots ( China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ) and pay attention to ice and snow tourism destinations Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) ; 2) Tax free faucet: the policy guides the return of consumption, the supply side continues to improve, and the tax-free faucet China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) is mainly recommended; 3) Medical beauty + cosmetics combination: the efficacy trend of cosmetics is irreversible, the medical beauty track is booming, the strength of domestic brand products is constantly improving and channels are optimized. Continue to recommend Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) + Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) + Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) and pay attention to Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) ; 4) Cultivating diamonds: the demand side is growing rapidly, and the upstream leading company Henan Huanghe Whirlwind Co.Ltd(600172) is recommended.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic exceeds the expected risk, the passenger flow in the scenic spot is less than expected, the hotel occupancy rate is less than expected, the recovery of single store income in retail stores is less than expected, the recovery of travel willingness is less than expected, the overall consumer demand is weak, and the leading exhibition stores are less than expected; The investment in marketing, innovation and Exhibition stores of listed companies has increased significantly, the adjustment of commodity structure has failed, and the CPI has fallen sharply.
