Core view
With its excellent performance, C / C composites have gradually replaced graphite in large-scale photovoltaic thermal field and become the mainstream thermal field materials. At present, the penetration rate of the "three major parts" - crucible, guide cylinder and insulation barrel in the thermal field has exceeded 50%, and it is expected to continue to improve with the industrial upgrading of photovoltaic industry and the progress of C / C composite preparation process.
On the demand side, the demand may exceed 7800 tons in 23 years, with a compound growth rate of about 57% in 21-23 years. In the next three years, the compound growth rate of photovoltaic new installation may be 19%, of which the annual growth rate of the demand for large-size silicon wafers may be 45%. Considering the new demand for large-size production capacity and the replacement demand for retained production capacity excluding some small-size thermal fields, the annual growth rate of the demand for thermal field materials may be 15%. Due to the short supply of C / C composite materials in 21 years, the penetration rate of C / C composite materials in thermal field is expected to be about 58% in 2021. If all thermal field materials are C / C by 23 years and the growth rate of thermal field materials is superimposed, the annual growth rate of C / C composite material demand in thermal field is expected to be about 57% from 21 to 23 years.
On the supply side, the 23-year output or nearly 7400 tons, with a compound growth rate of about 53% in 21-23 years. China's C / C composite material enterprises are financing to expand their production, and enterprises related to the industrial chain have also entered one after another. It is estimated that the production capacity of the main six enterprises will be about 4151 tons in 21 years, or increase to 8317 tons in 23 years, with a compound annual growth rate of about 42%. Assuming that the utilization rate of newly added capacity is 50% and the utilization rate of retained capacity is 100%, the supply in 23 years may be nearly 7400 tons, with an annual compound growth rate of about 53%.
The industry has strong learning effect, and the improvement of cost performance is expected to bring C / C composites into new application scenarios. The production cost differentiation in the industry is obvious, Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) has obvious cost advantages by virtue of self-made preforms, self-developed equipment and compact production process. However, the industry has a strong learning effect, the process of the newly expanded production line has made significant progress, and the potential of C / C cost is large, which may drive the continuous improvement of the cost performance of C / C composite materials and stimulate greater market demand. Braking materials are expected to become the next industrialization field.
Investment proposal and investment object
To sum up, the demand for C / C composite materials for thermal field will be better in the next two years. However, with the acceleration of production expansion of relevant enterprises and the reduction of product unit price with the downward movement of cost, the market share of cost leading enterprises is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, in addition to excellent mechanical and thermal properties, the friction performance of C / C composites is also better than the current mainstream braking materials. With the improvement of cost performance, it is expected to continue to be extended to new application scenarios. With deep technical reserves, enterprises will have medium and long-term investment opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) (688598, not rated), Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials And Technology Co.Ltd(002171) (002171, buy), Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) (688033, not rated), Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) (003009, not rated)).
Risk tips
Significant slowdown in macroeconomic growth, major adverse changes in photovoltaic industry policies in the future, possible adverse effects of price fluctuations of main raw materials and energy, changes in production capacity or production plans of downstream enterprises, and capacity expansion of small and medium-sized enterprises.
