[market performance] from January 24 to January 28, the CSI 300 index closed at 4563.77, down 4.66% in one week and 7.62% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3361.44 points, down 4.62% in one week and 7.65% year to date; Among shenwanyi industries, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, consumer services and other sectors performed well, with the weekly decline of 1.59% in the transportation industry, ranking first. Since the beginning of the year, the transportation industry has decreased by 2.88%, ranking third; In terms of molecular industries, the transportation industry ranked the top three in terms of weekly growth and decline, followed by public transportation (+ 1.29%), railway transportation (+ 0.43%) and Airport (- 0.11%).
[key information] IATA’s global air passenger transport demand in 2021 decreased by 58.4% compared with that in 2019. Compared with 2020, the demand for air passenger transport in 2020 decreased by 65.8% compared with 2019. (China civil aviation network)
[Key announcement] 1) Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the company expects that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company will continue to suffer losses in 2021, ranging from – 1.78 billion yuan to – 1.64 billion yuan; 2) Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) : the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 89.28 billion yuan in 2021, compared with 9.93 billion yuan in the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 799.3%.
[views of this week] 1) most of the listed companies in the air transport sector reported losses, mainly due to the weak demand under the disturbance of the epidemic. There are 10 listed companies in the air transport sector. At present, 8 have announced performance forecasts, including 6 with profit and 2 with loss. In the second year of covid-19 epidemic spreading all over the world, the overseas epidemic continued to be high and international travel was limited. The main factors of airlines’ performance losses include the continuous restriction of international route investment, the sharp fluctuation of China’s passenger traffic and the rise of fuel prices. 2) Affected by covid-19 epidemic, the airport passenger throughput and take-off and landing sorties were lower than expected, and the performance forecast of the airport sector showed a loss across the board. There are four listed companies in the airport sector, and three have announced performance forecasts, all of which have reported losses. The performance losses of airport listed companies are mainly affected by the global covid-19 epidemic, which makes it difficult for passenger throughput and takeoff and landing sorties to return to the normal level. In addition, there are many expenses for epidemic prevention, and the profitability is under pressure. 3) The logistics sector has released performance forecast, and most of the companies have forecast profits; Affected by the “price war”, the profitability of the express industry has decreased; The performance of Tob’s leading companies in the supply chain logistics industry is expected to increase. The main reason for the downward performance growth of express companies is the “price war” in the express industry in 2021, resulting in a decline in single ticket revenue greater than the growth of business volume; The differences in cost control and operating efficiency among express companies lead to performance differentiation; The median forecast net profit of Tob supply chain logistics company Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) in 2021 was 670 million yuan, 426 million yuan and 2.085 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 141.05%, + 47.50% and + 60.50% respectively. 4) The shipping industry ushered in a cyclical boom and upward market, and the performance of most listed companies in the sector increased in advance. There are 12 listed companies in the shipping sector, and 9 have announced performance forecasts, including 8 with profit and 1 with loss. The main reason for the pre increase in performance is that under the tight global supply chain, the supply of container transportation is in short supply and the freight rate is up.
Investment advice
Aviation sector: with the stability of the epidemic outside China, the passenger volume is expected to rise, and the relevant targets include Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) ; Logistics sector: the pattern of express delivery industry is expected to be stable, and the profit center is expected to move up. The relevant targets include S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ; Shipping sector: the supply side transport capacity of the container transportation industry is expected to be improved, and the downstream demand is expected to grow steadily, including Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) .
Risk tips
Fluctuations in crude oil prices; Exchange rate fluctuations; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
