Market review:
As of the closing on January 28, the coal sector fell 8.5% this week, and the CSI 300 index fell 4.51%. The rise of the coal sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 3.99pct. From the perspective of sector ranking, the weekly increase of coal sector ranks 29th among Shenwan 31 sectors, with an increase of – 4.21% year to date, ranking 5th among Shenwan 31 sectors.
Talk every Monday:
The port inventory decreased and the power coal price was relatively strong: the coal supply guarantee policy continued before the festival, the daily consumption of power plants operated at a high level, and the centralized replenishment of storage in the downstream pushed up the coal price. During the Spring Festival, the supply of some coal mines fell slightly, while the demand of non power plants weakened, and the power coal price was relatively strong. As of January 30, the coal price (q5500) of Qinhuangdao Port rose by 10 yuan / ton to 1010 yuan / ton; Subject to the high inventory of power plants, the gradual recovery of Indonesian exports and the recovery of supply after the festival, the follow-up rise of coal prices is expected to be limited. With the promotion of the reform of coal pricing mechanism, the fluctuation range of coal prices is expected to narrow and gradually move closer to the long-term association price. Recently, coal enterprises have successively issued announcements of significant pre increase in performance, Continue to pay attention to the sustainability of downstream replenishment in the near future and the repair trend of Industry Valuation under the background of large increase in performance;
The replenishment of steel mills came to an end, and the price of double coke remained stable: in the last week before the festival, the national blast furnace operating rate dropped significantly, and the increased maintenance during the festival affected the coke demand. At the same time, the coke inventory of steel mills increased significantly, and the replenishment came to an end. The factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke was flat at 3200 yuan / ton; The safety inspection in Shandong and Shanxi has become stricter, and the price of coking coal continues to operate strongly under the influence of the security inspection action in the main producing areas. The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi in Jingtang Port has stabilized at 2830 yuan / ton; In the follow-up, the possibility of continuous administrative production restriction in the iron and steel industry gradually decreases, and the demand for double coke in the medium and long term is worry free. However, in the short term, due to the restriction of production in the heating season and the decline of steel plant profits, the price of double coke may operate smoothly;
Market impact: the short-term power coal price is running at a high level, the performance of coal enterprises is expected to increase and the transformation expectation is expected to promote the revaluation of the sector; Affected by the limited production in the heating season and the overhaul in the Spring Festival, the output of steel mills decreased slightly, and the rise of coal coke price slowed down;
Investment strategy: focus on Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) and Yankuang energy, which benefit from the central rise of Changxie coal price, abundant cash flow and high dividend rate, and pay long-term attention to Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) benefiting from the increase of coking coal price and the deepening of national reform.
Risk warning: the policy strength exceeds the expectation, the demand is less than the expectation, and the power policy changes.
