Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: the opportunity of fund low allocation bank stock allocation appears
Event: Recently, public funds released 2021q4 heavy position shareholding data. Since the position change of active partial equity funds can better reflect the market preference, we select common equity funds, partial equity hybrid funds, flexible allocation funds and balanced hybrid funds as the representatives of active partial equity funds to statistically analyze the fund position.
From the situation of the whole banking sector, the proportion of active partial stock funds with heavy positions in banks has decreased, and the banking sector continues to be in the state of low allocation:
The banking sector (CITIC primary industry) ranks 11th in terms of heavy position market value. By industry, the market value of 21q4 active fund’s heavy positions is 2839.623 billion yuan. The top three industries with heavy positions are electronics, food and beverage, power equipment and new energy respectively. The heavy positions of the banking sector are 80.745 billion yuan, ranking 11th in various industries.
The proportion of the market value of the bank’s heavy holdings decreased. The market value of heavy positions of bank stocks accounted for 2.84% of the total market value of / fund heavy positions, down 0.35pct month on month compared with 21q3, continuing the downward trend of the proportion of bank positions since 21q2. On the one hand, the siphon effect was caused by the high attention of other sectors, and on the other hand, the market expectation was pessimistic due to the emergence of economic downward pressure. Specifically, state-owned banks accounted for 0.18%, down 0.01pct, joint-stock banks accounted for 1.56%, down 0.42pct, urban commercial banks accounted for 1.04%, up 0.06pct, rural commercial banks accounted for 0.07%, up 0.02pct.
The banking sector is in a low allocation state. As of 21q4, the ratio of the free circulation market value of A-share banking sector to the total circulation market value was 6.25%, while the market value of bank positions in the fund’s heavy positions accounted for 2.84%, with a low allocation of 3.41%. Compared with 21q3, the low allocation difference was narrowed, and the low allocation difference was the lowest level since 2018, but it was still at the highest level of low allocation difference in all sectors except banking and finance.
From the perspective of individual stocks, the individual stocks in the banking sector are highly differentiated, and the fund prefers differentiated varieties with distinctive characteristics and strong growth. At the same time, the agricultural and commercial bank with prominent regional location won the fund’s increased holdings against the trend:
The fund’s heavy positions are relatively concentrated, accounting for more than 10% of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (36.49%), Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) (26.49%), Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (10.02%) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (6.49%), accounting for 79.48% in total. They are high-quality bank stocks with distinctive characteristics and strong growth.
Agricultural commercial banks with superior regional location were increased by the fund against the trend. From the changes in the number of positions, we believe that the banks worthy of attention include Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) in urban commercial banks and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) in rural commercial banks. Specifically, among state-owned banks, Bank of communications, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and Bank of China fell out of the top ten heavy positions of some funds, and some funds instead increased their holdings of Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) and Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) . The number of shares held by Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) in the joint-stock bank decreased by – 88.11%, – 35.57%, – 15.94% and – 9.99% respectively year-on-year. The number of Bank Of Beijing Co.Ltd(601169) , Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) and Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) positions in urban commercial banks increased by 924.59%, 328.8% and 269.49% respectively year-on-year, mainly due to the low position base of 21q3. Among the banks preferred by early-stage funds, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) positions decreased month on month, and only the number of Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) fund positions increased by 17.08% and 31.91% year-on-year. The number of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) positions in rural commercial banks increased by 114.83% year-on-year. The fund has increased its positions Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) since the third quarter of this year. Rural commercial banks with high-quality regional location continue to receive the attention of the fund. For the stocks with higher valuation, except that the number of positions in the quarterly report of Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) increased slightly by 17.08%, the number of positions in the quarterly reports of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) decreased by – 9.99% and – 15.94% respectively month on month.
Investment strategy: in the fourth quarter, the willingness of public funds to allocate the banking sector was low, which was mainly affected by the market’s downward pressure on the economy and concerns about the quality of bank assets. Since the beginning of the year, the steady growth policy has been continuously strengthened, the policy bottom will be gradually transmitted to the economic bottom, and the downward pressure on the economy has slowed down. It is expected that public funds will pay more attention to the banking sector. On the other hand, according to the four seasons report released by the bank, the performance of high-quality banks exceeded market expectations. With the rapid growth of assets, the asset quality also improved marginally, and the investment value of bank stocks has appeared. It is suggested to pay attention to banks with outstanding regional advantages, controllable non-performing assets and excellent four seasons report, such as Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) .
Risk warning: policy risk; The risk of macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; The global covid-19 epidemic continues to deteriorate.
