Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: Performance Forecast of textile and garment sector
Event: as of January 31, 2022, 59 enterprises in the textile and garment sector have announced the performance forecast for 2021, 42 enterprises have achieved profits and 17 enterprises have suffered losses. Among the profitable enterprises, 20 enterprises increased year-on-year compared with 2020, the performance of 12 enterprises decreased year-on-year, and 10 enterprises turned losses into profits.
Among the 20 enterprises with year-on-year growth, the upper limit of growth is expected to reach 502.45%. Among the 20 profit-making enterprises, the year-on-year increase varies greatly. The largest increase is expected to be Jiangsu Jujie Microfiber Technology Group Co.Ltd(300819) (300819. SZ), and the upper limit of the increase is expected to be 502.45%, gradually returning to the level of 2019 before the epidemic.
Among the 10 enterprises that turned losses into profits, Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) changed the most. Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) it is mainly engaged in color spun yarn providing fashion and environmental protection technology. In 2020, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was -444.2304 million yuan. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 was 550-630 million yuan. The main reason is that China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and leading the recovery, and some overseas orders returned to China; The utilization rate of the company's production capacity is improved, and the gross profit margin of products is improved; The company has improved production efficiency through the construction of digital intelligence chemical plant, and achieved a breakthrough in the back-end network chain Adah socks industry.
Among the 12 enterprises with year-on-year decline, the lower limit of decline is expected to reach - 95.79%. Among the 12 profit-making enterprises, the largest decline is expected to be Xinlong Holding (Group) Company Ltd(000955) (000955. SZ), and the lower limit of the decline is expected to be - 95.79%. The main reason is that the demand for epidemic prevention materials such as masks and protective clothing increased significantly in 2020, and the net profit attributable to the parent company has increased significantly compared with 2019, so it is expected to decline year-on-year in 2021.
Overall, the industry has gradually recovered after the normalization of the epidemic. The main reasons that affect the performance disclosed in the performance forecast are as follows: at the industry level, the industry recovered after the epidemic, and China's epidemic control was better, so it took the lead in recovering, the epidemic in Southeast Asia repeated, and some international orders were transferred back to China; At the company level, improve the company's production efficiency, improve capacity utilization, expand Online + offline channels, and include newly acquired companies in statements. Considering the current overall situation of the textile and clothing industry, it is suggested to pay attention to the industry leading enterprises with undervalued value.
Market review (January 24 - January 28):
Among the Shenwan level industries, the light industry manufacturing industry fell by 5.71% this week, ranking 23rd among Shenwan 31 level-1 industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, entertainment products performed better, down 4.80%, and packaging and printing performed poorly, down 6.43%; The textile and garment industry fell 4.46% this week, ranking 13th among Shenwan's 31 primary industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the textile manufacturing sector fell 3.98%, the clothing and home textile sector fell 4.92%, and the jewelry sector fell 3.93%.
Industry data tracking:
Furniture: the price of wood this week has increased compared with that of last week, TDI price has increased, and MDI price has increased.
Papermaking: according to Zhuo Chuang information, in terms of pulp, on January 28, the market price of coniferous pulp was 6184.82 yuan / ton, down 1.16% from last Friday; The market price of broad-leaved pulp was flat at 5210.23 yuan / ton on Friday; The market price of natural color pulp was 6166.67 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday; The market price of chemical mechanical pulp was 4691.67 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday. In terms of packaging paper, on January 28, the market price of corrugated paper was 3900.00 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday; The market price of white cardboard was 5871.00 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday. In terms of cultural printing paper, on January 28, the market price of double offset paper was 5700 yuan / ton, up 0.44% from last Friday; In terms of household paper, the market price on January 28 was 6400.00 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday.
Textile and clothing: on January 28, the price of cotton was 22701.54 yuan / ton, up 0.40% from last week; The price of yarn was flat and the price of polyester decreased.
Investment strategy:
Recently, the policy margin of the real estate industry has been relaxed. We believe that we can pay attention to the home sector in the near future. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] and [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ]; Software home is recommended to pay attention to [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ].
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk and exchange rate fluctuation risk.
