Talk every Monday: sales remain weak and reasonable demand needs to be further released
Affected by the Spring Festival, the performance of the commercial housing market in January was weak, both supply and demand were weak, and it still takes time for the favorable policies and interest rate cuts to be transmitted to the fundamentals. The sales of real estate enterprises in January also remained weak, and the performance of quality real estate enterprises was better than the industry average. Under the background of "steady growth", the time difference between the implementation of favorable policies and the change of fundamentals puts forward higher requirements for regulation. With the willingness to stimulate reasonable demand as soon as possible, the policy care will continue in the future.
The commercial housing market was weak in both supply and demand in January. According to Kerui's sales data, in January 2022, the transaction area of 58 key cities decreased by 57% year-on-year and 56% month on month. The sales of commercial housing market is still relatively low. From the perspective of supply-demand relationship, the supply-demand ratio was 0.8 in January 2022, and the supply of commercial housing market also entered the lowest level in the near future.
In terms of city level, the first tier cities have the best sales market, and the third tier cities are slightly better than the second tier cities. In January, the transaction area of first tier cities decreased by 43% year on year, 42% month on month, 61% year on year, 64% month on month in second tier cities, 54% year on year and 44% month on month in third tier cities. As the target market for migrant workers returning home during the Spring Festival, the sales performance of the third tier cities is better than that of the second tier cities.
Excluding the impact of the Spring Festival, the sales fundamentals of the commercial housing market are still low. If the sales data of February 2021 is used as the base for comparison, the year-on-year growth rate of sales in that month is - 32%, and that in the first, second and third tier cities are + 12%, - 38% and - 34% respectively. Except for the first tier cities, the sales markets of the second and third tier cities have performed poorly.
According to the statistics of the top 50 real estate enterprises, the sales of real estate enterprises remained weak in January, and there was no significant improvement. The average year-on-year growth rate of the top 50 real estate enterprises in equity sales in January was - 33%, 3 percentage points lower than the year-on-year negative growth of the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate was 3 real estate enterprises, 4 less than the previous month.
From the perspective of real estate enterprises of different sizes, the sales of all echelons of real estate enterprises are still at a low ebb. The equity sales of top 10 real estate enterprises decreased by 45%, top 11-20 by 42%, top 21-30 by 36%, top 31-50 by 39% and top 51-100 by 43% year on year. From the absolute value of equity sales, country garden, Vanke, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang, Zhonghai, Greenland, China Resources, Jindi, China Merchants and Longguang ranked among the top 10 in equity sales.
From the year-on-year growth rate of equity sales of real estate enterprises in January, quality real estate enterprises are the first choice in the market. Dahua, Renheng, Binjiang and Greentown China, including Xinghewan, which has not been listed before, are representatives of quality real estate enterprises. The year-on-year sales data in January is at the forefront of real estate enterprises.
From the current market performance, under the current policy strength, it still takes some time for the market to gradually get out of the trough, and this time difference will also bring continuous pressure to the real estate industry in the future. Under the background of "stable growth", we believe that the industry has the willingness to further release reasonable demand in the future, stabilize the fundamentals out of the bottom, and the policy care will continue to improve.
Data tracking (January 24-january 30):
New housing market: the transaction area of 30 cities is - 36pct and - 24pct in one week and cumulative year-on-year respectively, first tier cities - 44pct, - 27pct, second tier cities - 59pct, - 61pct, third tier cities + 1PCT and + 26pct.
Second hand housing market: the transaction area of second-hand housing in 14 cities was - 45pct year-on-year in a single week and - 25pct year-on-year in total.
Land market: the cumulative land supply construction area of 100 cities is - 59pct year-on-year, the cumulative transaction construction area is - 66pct year-on-year, the cumulative transaction amount is - 80pct year-on-year, and the land transaction premium rate is 0.7%.
City Market: month on month: Beijing (+ 7pct), Shanghai (+ 41pct), Guangzhou (+ 25pct), Shenzhen (+ 129pct), Hangzhou (- 49pct), Wuhan (- 26pct), Nanjing (+ 37pct).
Investment strategy: it is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and Longhu group with stable operation and good credit background. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) and Greentown China under the product-oriented logic.
Risk tip: the sales market is down, some real estate enterprises have a storm of debt default, and the policy is beyond the expected regulation.
