Home furnishings: the growth of software home furnishings is dominant, and the impairment of Evergrande + the high level of raw materials drag down the performance of customization in 21 years
Retail home furnishing: due to the competitive pressure feedback of bulk & home decoration business and the impairment of Evergrande’s receivables, the customized home furnishing enterprise 21q4 continues to be under slight pressure, the pattern of software home furnishing enterprises continues to be optimized, the comprehensive performance of software is better, and customization expects better performance. Leading enterprises α Outstanding, leading the industry in performance growth. It is estimated that the revenue of the leading Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) 21 year will increase by about 40% and the net profit will increase by 20% +; Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) revenue increased by 43% and net profit increased by 101%; Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) revenue increased by 36% and net profit increased by 77%; Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) revenue increased by 22% with a net profit of 120 million, which was mainly due to Evergrande’s provision for special credit impairment. After restoration, the net profit decreased by 12% – 16% year-on-year, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials, the promotion of the whole customization strategy, dealer subsidy rebate and other factors, among which the dealer subsidy rebate and other estimated factors affected the 21q4 profit margin of 4-5pct; Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) revenue increased by 29% and net profit increased by 143%; Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) revenue increased by 30% – 35% and net profit increased by 25% – 30%; The revenue of gold cabinet increased by 25% – 30% and the net profit increased by 10% – 15%.
Export of home furnishings: the prices of raw materials and shipping were at a high level in 21 years. Although all enterprises generally raised prices to cope with the rise of costs, the range of price rise was not enough to cover the rise of costs and the lag of price rise still suppressed profitability. At present, the shipping price fluctuates at a high level, and the decline of raw materials in 21q4 has been obvious so far. We pay attention to the opportunity of profit inflection point brought by the price rise and cost decline of export household. We predict that the revenue will increase by 28% in Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) 21, and the net profit will be – 270 million yuan; In Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) 21, the revenue increased by 35% – 40% and the net profit decreased by 40% – 45%; In Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) 21, the revenue increased by 40% – 45% and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 35% – 40%.
Hardbound home furnishings: the default of Evergrande in 21 years and the poor opening data of hardbound suppressed the overall growth and performance of the industry. Under the wide credit of real estate in 22 years, the real estate chain is expected to hit the bottom and reverse. After the impairment of Evergrande’s receivables is fully accrued in 21 years, companies go into battle with light clothes, and the growth can be expected in 22 years. We expect that the revenue of Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) 21 will increase in single digits year-on-year. Due to the decline of order cutting revenue of Evergrande business in Q3 and Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company is – 48%.
Papermaking: the profit of bulk paper is under pressure, and the prosperity of special paper remains at a high level
Bulk paper: weak demand in 21q4, weak paper price, high wood pulp and energy costs, and general profit pressure in the industry. Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) released the performance forecast, the net profit of 21a + 46% – 60% to RMB 2.85-3.12 billion, and the net profit of Q4 decreased by 38% – 86% year-on-year to RMB 82-352 million; Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) it is estimated that 21a will realize a net profit of about 1.6-1.7 billion yuan.
Special paper: the industry pattern is accelerated and concentrated, and the demand boom is relatively good, Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) it is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.2-1.25 billion yuan in 21a; Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 430-470 million yuan in 21 years, an increase of 65% – 81% at the same time, corresponding to 130 million profit centers in 21q4, an increase of 49% at the same time.
Mandatory consumption & new tobacco: mandatory multi-dimensional impact, short-term pressure, and stable performance during the transition period of new tobacco policy
Household paper: during the period, the market competition was fierce (the promotion was strengthened), and the superimposed high price pulp was successively reflected to the cost, and the leading performance was suppressed. Vida international achieved annual revenue of HK $18.676 billion (+ 13.11%) and net profit attributable to parent company of HK $1.638 billion (- 12.59%); 21q4 single quarter revenue of HK $5.485 billion (+ 8.66%), net profit attributable to parent company of HK $406 million (- 27.29%); The strong price performance of HengAn international sanitary napkin business and the radical price strategy of the industry slightly affect the sales performance. The paper napkin business is also under slight pressure due to the intensification of cost and competition pattern, but the growth performance in the second half of the year is expected to be improved compared with that in the first half of the year; C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) it is expected that the sales revenue will still maintain a rapid growth, but due to the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials and the fierce competition in the industry, the promotion will be strengthened and the cost will be increased, and the profit is expected to decline.
Stationery: the overall impact of double reduction is controllable, and the impact of scattered epidemic in some regions. The operation of klip & Jiumu is improving, and the estimated Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) 21q4 net profit is + 10% – + 15%.
Personal care: with fierce competition in the industry and radical pricing strategy, Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) continues to invest expenses to seize the market & channel reform and the impact of epidemic in some regions. It is expected that the revenue of 21q4 will achieve double-digit growth.
New type of tobacco: during the transition period of China’s policy, all parties are more cautious, the industry is mainly to digest inventory, and overseas continues to be bright. SIMORE International released the performance forecast, and the total net profit and comprehensive income in 2021 increased by 109.3% – 131.4% to RMB 5.024-5.553 billion compared with 2020; During the period, the non recurring loss was 156 million yuan, and the adjusted net profit increased by 33.0% – 46.6% to 5.179-5.708 billion yuan. It is estimated that the adjusted net profit of Q4 in a single quarter is 955-1.484 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 33% ~ + 4%, and a month-on-month increase of q3-23.54% ~ + 18.82%. The performance is in line with expectations.
Packaging: excellent shipment performance, high cost squeezing profit performance
Metal packaging: the demand boom of two-piece can industry is high, and it is expected that the leading revenue will be better realized, but the profit margin is under pressure due to the high extrusion of aluminum price and energy cost; The demand for three piece cans is stable and the impact of raw materials is relatively small. Q7014 net profit is expected to decline year-on-year; Sunrise Group Company Limited(002752) released the performance forecast. In 21a, the annual profit is expected to be 166-182 million yuan (with an increase of 1116.90% – 1232.73%), and the Q4 net profit range is 42-58 million yuan (with an increase of 6.22% – 46.18%); Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co.Ltd(601968) released the performance forecast. In 21a, the annual profit is expected to be 243-285 million yuan (with an increase of 53.16% – 79.63%), and the Q4 net profit range is 39-81 million yuan (with an increase of 230.51% – 586.44%).
Paper packaging: affected by the cost of upstream raw materials, the profits of paper packaging enterprises are under pressure. Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) it is estimated that the net profit of 21a will increase by 20% – 25% and that of Q4 will increase by 20% – 25%; Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 5% – 10% and net profit by – 5% – 10% year-on-year.
Plastic packaging: the demand for cheese sticks is booming. The core supplier of domestic packaging materials Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) expects Q4 net profit to be + 15% – 20%.
High quality manufacturing: the downstream demand is booming and the growth momentum is abundant
The downstream demand of some export tracks is booming, which has brought positive growth to enterprises, such as shading materials, outdoor sporting goods, electric power assisted bicycles, etc. it is expected that the boom will continue in 22 years. It is estimated that Shandong Yuma Sun-Shading Technology Corp.Ltd(300993) 21a will realize a net profit of 130-160 million yuan; Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) it is estimated that 21a will realize a net profit of 210-240 million yuan; Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) it is estimated that 21a will realize a net profit of 200-230 million yuan.
Risk tip: the trade environment continues to deteriorate, the real estate regulation exceeds expectations, the rise of paper price is lower than expected, and the double control policy is intensified
